-Statistics Canada crop estimate updates supportive
-NOPA crush data tomorrow
-France lowers wheat crop estimate
-Large increase in Ukraine winter wheat area expected
-No USDA sales announcements
Tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT, NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush data update. The average estimate of August soybean crush by NOPA members is 154.2 million bushels (146.0-185.6 million range of ideas), down slightly from 155.1 million in July and would be down 6.6% from last year’s 165.1 million. While recent-month NOPA crush has been down 9-10% from last year, the average estimate appears appropriate as last year’s August crush finally pulled back from the record pace over the prior 8 months, reflecting the first month to not set a record at the time since December. July nationwide crush was 7.3% larger than NOPA-member crush, which would imply 164.2 million bushels crushed for the month based on the average trade estimate, which would then put 2020/21 total crush at 2.137 billion bushels vs the USDA’s current 2.140 billion bushel estimate. The average estimate of end August soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.555 billion pounds (1.500-1.60 billion range of ideas) vs 1.617 billion in July and would be the lowest in 10 months but still slightly above last year’s 1.519 billion.
Statistics Canada released updated crop production estimates this morning using their model-based estimating procedures, putting the all wheat crop at 21.7 MMT, below the 22.95 MMT estimate two weeks ago, which includes farmer survey data earlier in the season, and was in line with average market expectations of 21.9 MMT (19.6-23.3 MMT range of ideas), while obviously reflecting a massive decline from last year’s 36.2 MMT and would be the lowest since 2007/08. USDA last estimated the crop at 23.0 MMT. The canola crop was estimated at 12.8 MMT, solidly below average market expectations of 13.6 MMT (12.2-15.0 MMT range), well below the estimate two weeks ago of 14.7 MMT and down massively from last year’s 19.5 MMT. The new estimate reflects the lowest crop since 2010/11 and is well below USDA’s latest estimate of 14.0 MMT. The oat crop was estimated at 2.6 MMT vs 3.1 MMT two weeks ago, the average estimate of 2.8 MMT (2.3-3.1 MMT range) and 4.58 MMT last year. The barley crop was estimated at 7.1 MMT (7.8 MMT two weeks
ago), 7.5 MMT average trade estimate (7.2-7.8 MMT range) and 10.7 MMT last year.
Ukraine’s 2022/23 winter wheat crop is 5% planted, with the ag ministry expecting a 9.5% increase in area this year to 6.68 million hectares (16.5 million acres) from last year’s dry planting season-reduced area of 6.1 million hectares (14.8 mil acres).
France lowered their estimate of this year’s soft wheat crop to 36.1 MMT from 36.7 MMT previously, but would still be up substantially from last year’s drought-impacted 29.2 MMT, with the reduction due to the late-season heavy rainfall. The rapeseed crop was ticked higher to 3.31 MMT from 3.22 MMT previously and now marginally above last year’s 3.29 MMT, while the corn crop was raised slightly to 13.0 MMT from 12.9 MMT previously, but down a bit from last year’s 13.3 MMT. The barley crop was further raised to 11.74 MMT from 11.69 MMT previously and is up substantially from last year’s 10.41 MMT.
Safras & Mercado estimates Brazilian farmers have sold 70% of the safrinha corn crop so far vs 63% sold at this time last year, but with the sharply lower crop this year equates to 39.0 MMT being sold so far vs 47.0 MMT last year. Planting of the 1st corn crop is underway, estimated at 17% complete by Safras, with area estimated to be 4.38 million hectares (10.8 mil acres), essentially unchanged from this year.
Morocco is expected to eliminate the current 135% import duty on wheat imports effective November 1, which is in place to protect domestic producers during the growing season.
A poor showing by Argentina’s controlling Peronist party in midterm congressional primary elections yesterday has grain industry participants optimistic the government will reconsider policies in place to restrict meat exports and tone down the rhetoric/threats to impose higher grain export taxes.
There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress update showed corn crop conditions declining 1% in good/excellent to 58% vs average expectations for steady conditions, while soybean conditions held steady, as expected, at 57% g/e. Both remain near the lowest levels of the last 8 years. Corn harvest is 4% compete vs 5% average. Winter wheat planting is 12% complete vs 8% average. For full details of yesterday’s update, see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45143.