-Brazil expectedly further lowers corn production/export ideas
-Better US corn conditions weigh on prices
-USDA announces new crop corn/soybean sales
-U.S. weather outlook remains mostly favorable
USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out Thursday. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44764.
 Not unexpectedly, CONAB further solidly lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn crop to 60.3 MMT from 67.0 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 75.0 MMT, while being the lowest since 53.9 MMT three years ago. This pushed CONAB’s total corn crop estimate down to 86.7 MMT from 93.4 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 93.0 MMT and last year’s 102.0 MMT. CONAB now expects this year’s corn exports to be only 23.5 MMT vs 29.5 MMT estimated in last month’s update, while USDA is last at 28.0 MMT vs 35.2 MMT last year. CONAB left their corn import estimate unchanged at 2.3 MMT (USDA 3.5 MMT). CONAB tweaked the soybean crop to 136.0 MMT from 135.9 MMT last month (USDA 137.0 MMT/128.5 MMT last year), but lowered their export estimate to 83.4 MMT from 86.7 MMT last month and compares to USDA at 86.5 MMT and 81.6 MMT last year. They said there is risk of further export reductions if the pace of shipments does not pick up.
 Brazilian oilseed association Abiove sees the soybean crop at 137.5 MMT, with this year’s exports expected to be 86.7 MMT and annual crush of 46.5 MMT vs 46.8 MMT last year. The idea of slightly lower crush this year is due to uncertainty over the government’s biofuels mandate over the coming year.
 USDA reported U.S. corn crop conditions yesterday afternoon at 64% good/excellent, up 2% from the previous week (unchanged expected) and compares to 71% g/e last year. The increase in the national rating was essentially completely due to IL jumping 11% in g/e to 79%, putting it on par with last year’s crop at this time and now easily the best rating of the year so far overall with 24% excellent vs earlier-season ratings seeing a high of 16% excellent. MO was also up 6%, while WI was up 2%, but conditions in the west were mostly unchanged to slightly lower with IA, NE and ND down 1%, SD down 2% and MN and KS unchanged. Overall conditions are still slightly below the most-recent 5-year average for this time of the year.
 U.S. soybean conditions were unchanged at 60% g/e, in line with expectations, but well below last year’s 74% g/e and in line with 2017 to tie for the 2nd lowest of the last nine years. IL conditions also jumped 11% in g/e for the week, but were offset by 4% declines in ND and NE, 3% in SD, 2% in IN and 1% declines in IA and OH. KY was down 9% g/e for the week.
 Spring wheat conditions ticked higher by 1% in g/e to 11%, but remain essentially on par with 1988 for the worst on record. All states posted either unchanged or slightly better conditions this week for what it’s worth (ND unchanged). Spring wheat harvest is now 38% complete vs 17% last week and 21% average. ND is 24% harvested vs 15% average.
ï‚· U.S. winter wheat harvest is now 95% complete vs 91% average with only a modest portion of the white wheat crop in the PNW yet to harvest.
 For full details of yesterday’s Crop Progress update, see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44792.
ï‚· USDA released several daily export sales announcements this morning with 183k tonnes of corn to Mexico (152k 2021/22, 30k 2022/23), 132k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2021/22 and 130k tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 2021/22.
ï‚· Morocco has tendered for 363k tonnes (13 million bushels) of U.S. durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota. Keep in mind, USDA is currently estimating the durum crop at only 37 million bushels (likely lower) with total exports this year at 15 million bushels, while expecting imports of 60 mil bu.