-Brazil July soybean exports notably higher than preliminary ideas – corn lower
-Ukraine corn crop/export ideas raised
-Romanian wheat crop sharply lower
-U.S. soybean/corn crop conditions historically high heading into August 12 Crop Production report
-Rains remain in U.S. forecast, but ideas mixed on amounts/locations
-No USDA sales announcements
 Brazil’s official July export data showed soybean exports for the month were considerably larger than those recently estimated by the grain exporter association Anec, totaling 10.37 MMT vs Anec ideas of 8.4 MMT and reflecting much larger exports than last year’s 7.44 MMT in July. June exports were 13.75 MMT. Feb-July marketing year to date exports of 70.8 MMT compare to last year’s 49.1 MMT. Conversely, official July corn exports of 4.15 MMT were less than Anec’s estimate of 5.4 MMT and compare to last year’s 5.93 MMT. Brazilian corn exports are just getting underway for the current marketing year having totaled less than 900k tonnes over the March-June period.
 Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA solidly raised their estimate of the country’s corn crop to 38.9 MMT from 36.8 MMT previously (USDA 39.0 MMT/35.9 MMT last year), and expects 2020/21 corn exports to rise to 33.0 MMT from 30.3 MMT last year (USDA 33.0 MMT new crop/32.0 MMT old crop). UGA left their estimates of Ukraine’s wheat crop and exports unchanged at 26.8 MMT and 18.0 MMT, respectively (USDA 26.5/17.5 MMT – exports last year 20.5 MMT). UGA lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s rapeseed crop to 2.93 MMT (3.33 MMT previously) and exports to 2.65 MMT (3.0 MMT previously), with USDA reflecting last year’s crop at 3.47 MMT and exports of 3.0 MMT.
 Romania’s Ag Ministry sees this year’s wheat crop at a mere 5.5-5.6 MMT vs last year’s 9.4 MMT following extreme drought conditions during much of the growing season. Romania exported 5.6-6.1 MMT of wheat in each of the last three years with crops in the 8.0-9.4 MMT range in recent years. With the sharply reduced crop this year, obviously exports would be expected to decline significantly, as well.
 U.S. soybean crop conditions improved 1% g/e last week to 73%. The weighted composite crop condition index is now the highest for early August in 26 years, just topping conditions in 2016, 2014 and 2004. Corn conditions were unchanged last week at 72% g/e, with the composite weighted condition index the highest in four years for early August and the 4th highest of the last 16 years. With the historically good crop conditions, private estimates heading into the August 12 Crop Production report could be quite high. A level of caution is warranted regarding next Thursday’s Crop Production report as the August numbers no longer include USDA objective field survey data, i.e., ear counts/plant populations, as those now begin
being assessed for the September report. The August crop estimate will be based solely on farmer survey data and satellite analysis.
 U.S. spring wheat conditions rose 3% in g/e to 73%, with the composite condition index now back solidly above the 10-year average, matching last year’s condition at this time for the 2nd best of the last 10 years in early August.
ï‚· U.S. winter wheat harvest is 85% complete vs 88% average, while spring wheat harvest is now 5% complete vs 10% average.
 For full details of yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress update, please see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40987.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Yesterday afternoon’s monthly USDA Oilseeds Crushings report showed June soybean crush slightly lower than expected, but still easily record high, while end June soybean oil stocks were lower than expected. June corn for ethanol usage was a bit higher than anticipated, providing support for their current annual demand estimate. See our post discussing details of the data at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40986.
 COFCO’s large oilseed crush/export facility at Timbues, Argentina is back up and running after 12 employees tested COVID-19 positive last week. All other tests have been negative so the crushing and export loading operations are back at full capacity.
 Russia has harvested 13.6 million hectares (33.6 mil acres) vs 12.9 mil hectares (31.9 mil acres) at this time last year, with 49.7 MMT collected so far vs 46.9 MMT as of early August a year ago. The average wheat yield so far of 3.66 tonnes/hectare (54.4 bu/acre) is up marginally from last year’s 3.62 at this time.
ï‚· August SBM deliveries of 24 contracts continue to recirculate. There were no SBO or soybean deliveries today.
Weather
Over the last 24 hours, rains of .25-.75†fell in the southern 1/3 of IL, the southern ½ of IN and most of MI and OH. Some showers will spread into MN by tomorrow and then by early Thursday into Friday, rains will move into most of the western Midwest. The models have come into better agreement with the ideas for this event and indicate totals of .30-1†to fall in around 75-80% of the region west of the MS River, as well as into west central IL, with totals elsewhere in the .35†range or less. This is a fairly significant decrease for areas east of the MS River from previous ideas. The 6-10 day outlook sees
different rain ideas between the models with the European having rains of .30-1†for around 85% of western belt, as well as into far western IL/WI. Totals east of the river would be in the .20-.80†range, heaviest in OH and eastern IN, with coverage around 55%. The GFS sees totals of .40-1†to fall in around 90% of the entire corn belt, with some 1â€+ totals in southern WI/MI and northern IL/IN. The GFS is the favored model but amounts may be a bit high.