-Non-threatening weather outlook leads to lower trade expectations
-USDA attache sees another large increase in Brazilian soybean crop next year
-Ukraine to decide grain exports limits by Aug 30
-Brazil safrinha corn harvest remains slow
Grain markets are expected to be solidly lower this morning with a good rain event expected at the end of the week and the Euro adding rains in the 6-10 day period, as well. Additionally, there are no threatening temps through the 15-day outlook. Corn and soybean conditions are expected to post slight/modest improvements in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, while spring wheat conditions likely decline further. USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports will be out next Monday, July 12.
 The USDA ag attaché in Brazil is largely in agreement with the USDA’s official ideas on this year’s soybean balance sheet with the crop estimated at 137.0 MMT (128.5 MMT last year) and exports at 87.0 MMT (USDA 87.5 MMT/81.6 MMT last year). The
attaché sees this year’s crush at 46.5 MMT vs USDA’s 46.75 MMT estimate and last year’s 46.85 MMT, with SBM exports
estimated to be 16.5 MMT vs 16.9 MMT last year and SBO exports of 1.2 MMT (USDA 1.32 MMT) vs last year’s 1.1 MMT. For the
coming year, the attaché is also largely in agreement with official USDA ideas, looking for another large increase in soybean
production to 143.5 MMT (USDA 144.0 MMT), allowing for exports to rise to 94.0 MMT (USDA 94.3 MMT) from this year’s
expected 87.0 MMT. Next year’s crush is estimated at 47.7 MMT.
 Ukraine officials said they will decide by August 30 whether grain export limits/quotas will be set, but there will be no limits on exports over the next two months as this year’s crop sizes and exportable supplies are assessed. Recent ideas have indicated a record total grain crop is likely this year, leading to expectations for solid increases in exports from last year’s 17.5 MMT wheat and 24.0 MMT corn.
 AgRural estimates 12% of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is harvested, with the total crop estimated at 85.3 MMT vs USDA last at
98.5 MMT and last year’s 102.0 MMT. They see the safrinha crop in the main Center South growing region totaling 54.6 MMT vs 73.5 MMT last year, while Safras & Mercado is at 61.6 MMT for the region.
ï‚· The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly data report on July 12. The average estimate of end June palm oil stocks is 1.686 MMT (1.576-1.747 MMT range of ideas), up from 1.569 MMT in May and would be the highest in 9 months. Year ago June stocks were 1.898 MMT. June palm oil production is estimated at 1.682 MMT (1.650-1.760 MMT range) vs 1.572 MMT in May and 1.886 MMT last year, while June exports are estimated at 1.392 MMT (1.341-1.475 MMT range) vs 1.265 MMT in May and 1.711 MMT last year.
 China announced they will auction 130k tonnes of imported corn (U.S./Ukraine) on July 9. Last week’s auction saw very limited interest with only 28k tonnes of the 156k offered being bought.
ï‚· Russian wheat export prices were down $7/tonne over the last week according to IKAR with 12.5% protein supplies quoted at $242/tonne fob Black Sea.
ï‚· Over the weekend, Egypt bought 240k tonnes of wheat, 180k Romanian and 60k Russian, priced at $270.54/tonne c&f and
$267.70/tonne c&f, respectively.
ï‚· Turkey tendered for 395k tonnes of milling wheat for Aug 16-30 shipment, with offers due by July 13.