-China buys new crop US soybeans despite reported ban – seeking more
-Ukraine wheat/corn crop ideas raised on better May rains
-Brazilian May soybean exports set record for the month
-Egypt buys Ukrainian wheat
-US crop conditions generally good
ï‚· Despite reports over the weekend Chinese state-run entities were ordered to stop buying U.S. soybeans, among several other ag products, wire services are reporting state-owned firms bought 3-5 cargoes (180-300k tonnes) of soybeans off the PNW yesterday for Oct-Nov shipment. Soybeans traded higher yesterday throughout much of the day on ideas China was kicking the tires for U.S. soybeans. This morning, USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2020/21 delivery, confirming at least some business was done. They are reportedly still seeking more new crop cargoes.
ï‚· Brazilian trade data showed May soybean exports were 15.5 MMT, sharply above year ago May exports of 10.0 MMT, and modestly below the monthly record set in April of 16.3 MMT. Through the first four months of the 2020/21 marketing year, Brazil exported 47.8 MMT of soybeans vs 33.1 MMT last year and the previous record for the period of 34.3 MMT two years prior.
 Ukraine ag consultant ProAgro raised their estimate of the country’s wheat crop to 26.7 MMT from 25.4 MMT previously and also raised the corn crop to 37.6 MMT from 37.3 MMT, as well, as improved rains in May were seen. Their total grain crop estimate was raised to 74.4 MMT from 72.5 MMT and reflects a much more optimistic view of this year’s crop than the ag ministry last month cautioning the crop could fall to 65-68 MMT.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for July 10-25 shipment. The lowest price offers were $220.40 & $220.97/tonne c&f for Ukrainian, with Russian wheat offered lowest at $222.70/tonne c&f. Egypt ended up buying 120k tonnes of Ukrainian wheat. In their last tender on April 16, Egypt bought 240k tonnes of wheat, 180k French ($251.80/tonne c&f) and 60k Russian wheat ($251.75/tonne c&f).
 Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress update reflected a solid improvement in the U.S. corn crop with good/excellent increasing 4% to 74% from last week vs expectations of 71%. Last year initial rating, which was for the week ended June 9, was 59% g/e. We would deem overall conditions modestly better than average. Planting is now 93% complete vs 89% average and 63% last year.
 The first soybean crop condition update of the year was 70% g/e, above average expectations of 68% and compared to last year’s initial rating of 54% g/e, which wasn’t issued until June 23. Soybean conditions are slightly better than average. Soybean planting is 75% complete (79% expected) vs 53% the previous week, 36% last year and 68% average. The only delay of note continues to be ND at 51% planted (29% last week) vs 80% average.
 The first spring wheat crop condition update of the year was a surprise at 80% g/e, sharply better than average expectations of 66% (60-75% range of ideas) and compared to last year’s initial rating of 83% g/e the same week. We would note the USDA’s Crop Progress report’s reflection of last year’s same-week conditions in yesterday’s update of 74% g/e is an error. Spring wheat planting jumped to 91% complete, as expected, from 60% the previous week and compares to 90% last year and 96% average. ND is now 85% planted (70% last week) vs 95% average.
 Winter wheat conditions declined 3% in g/e last week to 51% vs unchanged expectations at 54%. Last year’s crop was rated 64% g/e at this time. While KS improved 2%, OK declined 4% in g/e, TX 3% and NE 6%. MO and AR were down 7% and 6% g/e, respectively, while IL improved 1%, IN 2% and OH 4%. Harvest is 3% complete vs 2% average, with TX 32% vs 21% avg and AR 14% vs 6% avg.
 For full details on yesterday’s Crop Progress update, please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40287.
Weather
A front will work through the Midwest later today into tomorrow and finishing up in the south early Thursday. The models are mixed with their ideas on amounts the front will bring. The European still indicates totals of .25-.75†with a few isolated heavier amounts and coverage of around 70%. The GFS indicates totals of .50-1.25†to fall in all but the northern 1/3rd of IL, IN and southern MI. The GFS has been bouncing around a lot with the rainfall totals with this event. The 6-10 day outlook is quiet through early next week and then gets complicated by tropical activity moving from the south hitting a cold front from the NW. The European sees the meeting place to be MO, IL, IN and OH, with totals of 1-2.5â€+ to occur.
The GFS sees the meeting place to be MN, IA and MO, with .75-1.5â€+ to occur. Rains would be more limited in the rest of the region in both cases. Temps in the next week to ten days look to run above average in the NW ½ to 2/3 of the Midwest, with average temps in the SE.