-USDA reports more new crop corn sales to China
-US planting remains well ahead of average
-Large increase in India soybean area possible
-Decent rains expected for some safrinha corn areas
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress update showed U.S. corn planting 80% complete, below market expectations of 84%, but is of little issue given planting continuing to run so far ahead of average of 68%. Corn planting across the Midwest is winding down with IA 94% complete, MN 95%, NE 86% and IL 86%. Soybean planting at 61% complete was in line with expectations of 60% and is sharply ahead of average of 37%. IA is already 83% planted vs 48% avg, MN 88% vs 47% avg and IL 71% vs 40% avg.
ï‚· U.S. spring wheat planting is nearly complete at 85%, in line with expectations and ahead of 71% average. ND is 84% planted
vs 64% avg and SD 97% vs 86% average. The first spring wheat crop condition report is expected in next week’s update.
 U.S. winter wheat conditions last week unexpectedly ticked 1% lower to 48% good/excellent vs market ideas for a 1% increase and remain slightly below last year’s 52% g/e at this time. The decline was primarily due to white wheat conditions in the PNW as the crop there continues to significantly struggle. For the week, OR was down 13% g/e, WA down 5% and ID down 7%. Overall white wheat conditions are the lowest we have calculated them for over the last 20+years as of mid-May. On the other hand, SRW conditions continue to improve with IL up 13% g/e last week, with the composite SRW the 2nd best of the last 17 years, while HRW conditions were mostly steady for the week holding a bit below the 5-year average but better than the 10-year average.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of another 1.360 MMT of new crop, 2021/22, corn to China this morning, bringing total reported
purchases now to 8.2 MMT.
ï‚· Historically high prices have Indian farmers eyeing a potentially significant increase in soybean area this year of 10-12%
depending on monsoon rain prospects according to the Soybean Processors Associations of India. Soybeans are expected to
attract acreage away from cotton and pulses this season. Last year, India produced 10.4 MMT of soybeans on 11.8 million
hectares (29.2 mil acres). USDA has an early projection of this year’s soybean crop at 11.2 MMT, but with unchanged area. The
combination of increased area as estimated by SOPA and solid yields could result in production rivaling the 2012/13 record of
12.2 MMT. Higher soybean production eases vegoil import needs, as well as allows for competitive soybean meal exports.
Soybean planting typically gets underway in June upon the arrival of monsoon rains.
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of milling wheat for July shipment, with offers due by tomorrow.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil futures surged higher overnight with benchmark August up more than 5%.
ï‚· Chinese trade data for April showed corn imports were 1.85 MMT vs 1.93 MMT in March and 890k tonnes last year April. Oct-Apr marketing year to date imports of 13.2 MMT compare to 3.1 MMT last year. Total grain imports (corn, wheat, sorghum, barley) in April were 4.93 MMT vs 4.08 MMT in March and 1.86 MMT last year. Oct-Apr total grain imports of 30.7 MMT compare to 9.7 MMT last year.
Weather
Good rains remain in the forecast for safrinha corn areas of Parana and MGDS, with light amounts possible for Mato Grosso in the 1-5 day and 6-10 day periods.
The Central/Southern Plains continue to see good rains with activity over the last 24 hours including .50-1.5†for the western 1/3 of KS and OK and most of TX. Most areas are expected to see another 1â€+ over the next 7 days. Corn belt rains yesterday were limited to MO, the southern 2/3 of IL and central IN of mostly.25-1â€. Rains over the next 7 days are expected to have a western bias, with solid amounts seen across the Dakotas, MN, IA and WI, while good coverage of lighter amounts are expected for IL, IN and OH.