-Sharp decline in Brazil ethanol production/exports expected
-Indonesian palm oil production seen up solidly
-Record Ukraine wheat/corn crops possible
-Brazil April soybean exports all-time record
-Brazil safrinha corn forecast remains dry
-Very strong U.S. corn/soybean planting week as expected
The forecast for Brazilian safrinha corn areas remains dry through the 10-day period.
 The Indonesia Oil Palm Research Institute expects a solid increase in the country’s palm oil production in 2021 to 55.7 MMT, up 7.1% from last year’s 52.01 MMT due to expectations for a moderate dry season. They see crude palm oil production at 48.4 MMT and crude palm kernel oil production at 7.3 MMT.
ï‚· Expectations for Brazilian sugarcane processing to shift strongly to sugar from ethanol in 2021/22 continue to expand with consultant JOB Economia expecting 48.2% of cane to go to sugar production, which would be the highest allocation since 2012. Accordingly, cane-based ethanol production could decline as much as 12% from last year, prompting a potential 24% decline in ethanol exports relative to last year to 2.2 billion liters (581 million gallons) from 2.9 bil liters (766 mil gallons) in 2020/21.
 Sovecon raised their estimate of this year’s Ukrainian wheat crop to a record 28.6 MMT from previous ideas of 27.8 MMT and up sharply from last year’s 24.9 MMT. They also see the potential for a record corn crop of 36.6 MMT (current record 35.8 MMT 2018) vs last year’s 30.3 MMT, weather pending. They said most wheat areas saw 100-125% of normal precipitation during April as overall conditions remain very good.
 Brazil exported an all-time monthly record 17.38 MMT of soybeans in April vs 13.5 MMT in March and sharply beating the previous monthly record of 14.86 MMT last year April. Corn exports in April were minimal at 130.9k tonnes but above last year’s 6.7k for the month.
 Yesterday’s Crop Progress update confirmed an exceptionally strong planting week across the U.S. with the corn crop now 46% planted vs 17% the week prior and soybeans 24% planted vs 8% the previous week. Corn planting moved ahead of average of 36%, while soybean planting remains notably ahead of average of 11%. Based on the USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report acreage estimates, weekly progress numbers indicate roughly 25.2 million acres of corn and 13.5 million acres of soybeans were planted during the week.
ï‚· U.S. winter wheat conditions declined 1% in good/excellent last week at 48% g/e (55% g/e last year), with overall conditions holding a bit better than the 10-year average, but below the most-recent 5-year average. The same relationship exists for HRW conditions specifically, while SRW conditions remain above the 5-year and 10-year averages, in line with last year and among the best of the last 10 years, while white wheat continues to struggle with the lowest conditions in six years and nearing the lowest levels of the last 20 years. For the week, KS conditions were unchanged, OK down 7% g/e and TX up 6% g/e.
ï‚· Spring wheat planting jumped to 49% complete from 28% last week and is well ahead of average of 32%.
 For full details of yesterday’s Crop Progress update, please see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43768.
 Yesterday afternoon’s monthly USDA Oilseeds Crushings report showed March soybean crush at 188.2 million bushels, in line with expectations and down slightly from last year’s 192.2 million, while end March soybean oil stocks of 2.245 billion pounds were below market expectations of 2.317 billion pounds. Full details of the report, as well as the monthly Grain Crushings report, can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43767.
 May soybean deliveries of 64 contracts saw LDC stop 33, with the last trade date now up to 4/22/21. No corn deliveries still. Soybean oil deliveries fell to only 12 contracts (9 stopped by CHS) and are through 4/29/21, while 9 soybean meal contracts continue to recirculate (LTD 4/26/21). CBOT wheat saw 36 contracts of yesterday’s 200 contracts re-delivered and are through 4/15/21. KCBT deliveries jumped back up to 311 contracts, all by Cargill (LTD 4/29/21), while MPLS wheat deliveries were 33 contracts and are current.
Weather
NOTE: We have added weather model-estimated precip summary tables to our daily comments. The tables summarize the GFS and European model’s estimated precip by region and by period, along with the change in estimated precip from the forecast 24 hours prior. The U.S. table below compiles estimated state-average precip forecasts into regional averages: WCB (NE, MN, IA, MO), ECB (IL, IN, OH, WI), S. Plains (KS, OK, TX), N. Plains (ND, SD).
On the following page, tables including precip estimates by state, as well as Brazilian safrinha corn areas and Ukraine production areas are also available.
Precip activity over the last 24 hours in the corn belt included .25-1.25†with 35% coverage (much of IA, IL, WI, IN). The Central/Southern Plains saw .25â€-1.0†with 30% coverage, with the heaviest amounts in E OK and TX.