-Wheat conditions improve KS/TX, dip in OK/CO
-China to resume Canadian canola imports
-South American harvests continue unevenfully
-Ukraine to allow foreign investment in land
-TX corn planting ahead of average, delays further east
-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT – trade estimate summary included
USDA will release the quarterly Grains Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report today at 11:00 AM CT. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39522.
 The USDA’s first full weekly Crop Progress report of the year will be issued next Monday. Yesterday afternoon saw major wheat states update their weekly/monthly numbers.
 Kansas winter wheat conditions improved 2% last week to 50% g/e, are only slightly below last year’s and are better than conditions in 2018 and 2017 for late March. TX conditions jumped to 56% g/e from 49% g/e last week and are now the best in five years for late March. OK conditions fell to 70% g/e from 77% a week earlier and are the 2nd best for late March of the last 7 years. CO conditions declined to 51% g/e from 55% last week and are a bit below average relative to the last five years. Illinois SRW conditions were 61% g/e at the end of March, up from 56% a month earlier and substantially better than last year’s 42% g/e at this time. AR SRW conditions ticked up to 44% g/e from 43% last week and are in line with average conditions for late March. Montana conditions jumped to 50% g/e at the end of March vs 37% g/e a month earlier and compares to 62% g/e last year.
ï‚· OK wheat is 44% jointing vs 38% last year and 47% average. TX wheat is 28% is headed vs 27% last week, 6% last year and 9% average. KS wheat is 3% jointing.
ï‚· Texas corn is 50% planted vs 36% last week, 47% last year and 41% average. Louisiana is 61% planted vs 40% last week, 76% last year and 58% average. MS is 8% planted vs 3% last week, 29% last year and 25% average. AR is 2 % planted vs 1% last week, 10% last year and 14% average.
ï‚· China reportedly will begin allowing the import of Canadian canola once again, lifting the ban put in place in March 2019, which was technically instituted due to quality issues, but was steeped in controversy surrounding the arrest of a top Huawei Technologies official. Prior to the ban, China accounted for roughly 40% of Canadian canola exports, with 4.8 MMT exported to China in 2018. The potential resumption of canola export to China weighed on the soybean market overnight.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 113k tonnes of corn to Japan for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
 Facing the same situation of sharply reduced gasoline demand as in the U.S., Brazil’s two largest fuel distributors are notably cutting back on the amount of ethanol they purchase for blending, with one declaring a force majeure on previous agreements of March volumes, with more to come for future months, as well. Brazil is in the midst of a record sugarcane harvest and with ethanol accounting for more than 65% of cane processing in recent years (expected to decline to around 55% in 2020), reductions in ethanol demand are likely to have a substantial impact. Ethanol accounted for roughly 40% of total light vehicle fuel usage in Brazil last year.
 Brazil’s soybean harvest is 74% complete vs 76% last year and 72% average. Brazil’s 1st corn crop harvest continues uneventfully at 61% complete, slightly ahead of average, while planting of the safrinha crop largely was completed last week. Argentina’s corn harvest is 15% complete, in line with last year and average.
ï‚· Russia announced they will well 1.0 MMT of the 1.8 MMT of grain in state reserves into the domestic market in order to stabilize prices and ensure availability amid the coronavirus pandemic.
 Malaysian March palm oil/product exports were 1.156 MMT, up slightly from February’s 1.082 MMT, but well below March 2019 exports of 1.546 MMT.
ï‚· Ukraine voted to allow foreign investment in land, ending a near two-decade ban, in order to meet requirements to secure an $8 billion IMF loan package. This could lead to even increased investment in farmland that has experienced impressive productivity gains with corn yields rising by around 60% and corn production more than tripling over the last decade.
Weather A cold front will bring rains of .20-.70†to the eastern ½ of KS, OK and TX by Friday. Totals in the western look to be under .20â€. The 6-10 day sees rains of .40-1†to fall in the eastern ½ of KS, OK and TX Monday and then an organized system brings .40-1†to the eastern ¼ of KS and eastern 1/3 of OK and TX by Thursday. Brazil looks to see rains of .50-1.5â€+ fall in most of RGDS, as well as northern Mato Grosso, with totals elsewhere generally under .25†this week. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .50-1â€+ to fall across most areas with totals generally under .30†in Sao Paulo. Widespread .50-1†rains are expected across Argentina Wed-Thur, with the 6-10 day period mostly dry.