-Slowing ethanol production remains in the spotlight
-US winter wheat condition improvements continue
-Brazilian soybean exports not materially impacted – yet
-China’s top-producing corn province raising corn subsidies
-Malaysia orders closure of some palm oil plants
 The president of the Renewable Fuels Association said around a total of 2 billion gallons in annual ethanol production capacity that was in operation a month ago is expected to be offline by the end of the week, representing nearly 12% of total registered U.S. capacity. The decline in ethanol production over the last two weeks, according to the EIA’s weekly reports, represents an annualized production drop of roughly 675 million gallons for reference. Separately, POET said that, while they have not idled any ethanol plants at this time, they have stopped buying corn “at a number of locations†as they re-assess ethanol production needs in the face of declining gasoline demand.
 U.S. winter wheat crop conditions continue to improve, with all HRW states providing weekly updates yesterday afternoon reflecting increases over the last week. TX conditions jumped to 49% good/excellent from 36% g/e the week prior and are the best in 4 years at this time, KS saw g/e increase 2% to 48%, but more impactful was the drop in poor/very poor to 14% from 18% the previous week, while OK conditions improved sharply to 77% g/e from 67% the previous week. CO condition also improved to 55% g/e from 46% the previous week. SRW conditions in AR rose 4% in g/e to 43%, while the first update for AR put the crop at 52% good (0% exc), slightly better than last year’s conditions at this time and the highest in 4 years. MS conditions improved solidly, as well, now at 42% g/e vs 40%, but excellent at 8% vs 3% last week, but overall MS conditions remain historically poor for late March. The USDA’s first full Crop Progress report of the year is still two weeks away.
ï‚· Corn planting in TX is 36% complete vs 31% avg, while LA is 40% vs 28% avg, MS 3% vs 10% avg and AR 1% vs 5% avg.
 Brazilian soybean exports have yet to be materially impacted by the coronavirus pandemic as shipments so far for March have already hit roughly 7.2 MMT vs 5.1 MMT exported in February and certainly could end up exceeding last year’s March exports of 8.4 MMT according to Safras & Mercado. They do see a risk of slowing exports, though, if additional/stricter measures are taken impacting the movement of people. These concerns could be behind ideas China is poking around for summer-shipped U.S. soybeans.
 China’s WH Group said overall impacts from the coronavirus pandemic on its operations have “very limited.†They said 95% of the factories in its pork processing subsidiary have resumed operations at normal levels, but do expect implications of the Africa swine fever to continue for a “rather long period.†Continued very high domestic pork prices are expected to keep imports of pork, including those from the U.S., flowing and increase in 2020.
ï‚· China imported 930k tonnes of corn during Jan-Feb vs 570k tonnes last year according to just-released Customs data. China did not provide import data for January, instead issuing combined 2-month totals. Oct-Feb marketing year-to-date corn imports of 1.85 MMT compare to 1.19 MMT last year. China imported 560k tonnes of pork in Jan-Feb, a 158% increase from last year. Wheat imports for the two months of 680k tonnes were down 9% from last year.
 China’s top corn-producing province, Heilongjiang, said they will increase subsidies paid to farmers for corn production in 2020 in order to “appropriately increase corn acreage.†Details on the degree of the increase aren’t immediately available. Subsidies for soybeans, though, will still be set 200 yuan above corn.
ï‚· Malaysia has ordered the temporary closing of palm oil production plants in three districts in the state of Sabah (total production in Sabah accounts for roughly 25% of national production) as several palm oil workers tested positive for coronavirus.
 All the hubbub yesterday of a halting of Russia grain exports proved false as the government moved to temporarily ban the export of processed ready-to-eat grains such as buckwheat and rice and oat flakes as hording has taken place amid the coronavirus situation. Exports of bulk grains are not impacted. The confusion apparently came from the announcement’s use of the Russian word “krupy†which sometimes is translated as cereals.
Weather The U.S. corn belt is under a fairly wet pattern for the next 6-7 days and then warmer and drier for early next week. Rains today of .30-.80†are expected for the southern 1/3 of MO, IL, IN and OH, with rains and possibly wet snow for MN, WI and MI Wednesday night and Thursday, with totals of .20-.70†and then rains Friday/Saturday, with estimated amounts of .50-1†and areas of 1â€+. The Brazilian growing regions look to see rains of 1-2†fall in most of Mato Grosso and Goias in the next 5 days, with totals of .25-.75†in MGDS and Parana and little in the way of rainfall elsewhere. The 6-10 day sees rains of .50-1â€+ to fall in most areas. The Argentine growing regions look to see rains of .50-1â€+ fall across northern Buenos Aries/La Pampa and southern Santa Fe Entre Rios with a front that will work through tonight and tomorrow. The 6-10 day indicates rains of .50-1.5†to fall in most areas by Monday and Tuesday.