-Winter wheat conditions improve considerably over the last week
-Australia sees potentially huge recovery in wheat production
-Large March soybean deliveries come out
-Texas corn planting ahead of average/winter wheat development notably ahead
With the USDA’s full weekly Crop Progress updates still not starting for another month, several key winter wheat producing states have started providing individual weekly updates as the crop breaks dormancy. Kansas winter wheat is now rated 43% good/excellent, up solidly from 35% g/e a week earlier and compares to 44% g/e at the end of last fall and 49% g/e at this time last year. Oklahoma conditions jumped to 57% g/e from 46% last week, 52% last fall and 53% g/e last year, while Texas conditions rose to 36% g/e from 31% last week and compare to 23% g/e last fall and 36% g/e last year. The TX winter wheat crop is already 24% headed vs 23% last week and just 4% last year and 1% average.
ï‚· The Texas corn crop is 12% planted vs 7% last year and 6% average.
 Australia’s crop forecasting agency, ABARES, sees the improved rains of late and longer-term forecasts for a return to a more normal rainfall pattern this year, prompting a significant increase in wheat planted area to 12.0 mil hectares (29.7 mil acres) from last year’s 10.1 mil hectares (25.0 mil acres). When combined with a rebound in yields, if the improved weather pattern forecast verifies, they see a potentially massive recovery in wheat production in 2020/21 to 21.3 MMT from last year’s 15.2 MMT, a 40% increase and would be the largest crop in four years. These ideas are very preliminary as Australian wheat planting doesn’t get underway until late April with harvest occurring in Nov-Dec, but there has been a clear change in weather patterns across previously drought-stricken areas of late.
 Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Oilseed Crushings report put January soybean crush at an all-time record 188.8 million bushels, above average expectations of 187.3 million, up from 184.7 million in December and last January’s 183.1 million. End January U.S. soybean oil stocks were reported at 2.352 billion pounds, below the average trade estimate of 2.365 billion, but up strongly from 2.134 billion in December and the highest January stocks since 2013. For details on yesterday’s Oilseed Crushings and Grain Crushings report, see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39190.
 Ukrainian ag consultant APK-Inform estimated roughly 800k hectares (2.0 mil acres) of winter grains, or roughly 11% of the 7.0 mil hectares (17.3 mil acres) planted, are in “weak condition†and could be subject to replanting. This is nearly identical to last year’s early March situation in which roughly 700k hectares (1.7 mil acres) of the 7.1 million were deemed in weak condition.
ï‚· South Korea bought 131k tonnes of optional-origin corn overnight at $207.25-$207.50/tonne c&f for May shipment, with U.S. corn off the PNW seen potentially in play.
ï‚· The first March soybean deliveries were posted today, with 1,000 contracts put out by JP Morgan and a last trade date of 2/28/20. Soybean meal deliveries continue to recirculate with 922 contracts put out today (thru 3/02/20) as do soybean oil deliveries of 343 contracts (thru 2/28/20). KCBT wheat deliveries of 9 contracts continue to recirculate, as well, and are now through 2/28/20. MPLS wheat deliveries dropped to 12 contracts, but were new issues and are thru 2/25/20. No corn or CBOT wheat March deliveries have occurred yet.
Weather The Argentine forecast remains dry through the weekend, with rains still forecast to return early next week. Amounts of .40-1†are expected for most areas by the first half of next week. The European sees the rains missing Buenos Aries and La Pampa, while the GFS sees fairly widespread coverage in all areas. Yesterday saw rains of .25-.75â€+ across the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in Brazil. Additional 1-2†rains are expected in the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, most of Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and the northeast ½ to 2/3 of Parana over the next 5 days. The same general area is expected to see .50-1.5†amounts again in the 6-10 day period, as well. Keep in mind essentially all of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is produced from Parana on north so any concerns of dryness in the south are immaterial to the 2nd corn crop.