-US winter wheat conditions mostly lower over the last month
-Massive Brazilian crop delays continue
-South American crop ideas moving back higher
-India expecting massive, record-shattering wheat crop
-No USDA sales announcements
The soy complex was sharply higher overnight, led by soybean oil and soybeans as Malaysian palm oil futures were sharply higher and massive harvesting delays continue in Brazil. However, South American crop ideas have been ticking higher and, eventually, the soybean crop will come out.
 Major winter wheat producing states provided their monthly crop condition updates yesterday afternoon with no major detrimental impact from this month’s deep freeze being apparent. Overall conditions for the month did decline, but that is not uncommon during the winter months, while spring weather will still be much more important to yield/crop prospects, in our opinion, than the current condition of the crop. Specifically, KS conditions slipped to 40% good/excellent from 43% g/e a month ago, but remain better than 35% g/e at this time a year ago, while NE was unchanged for the month at 34% g/e and are holding well below last year’s 69% g/e. OK conditions fell to 48% g/e from 61% g/e a month ago, but remain slightly above last year’s 46% g/e, while TX at 30% g/e (29% last week) is comparable to last month’s 29% g/e and last year’s 31% g/e. IL conditions saw the largest condition decline of states reporting, falling to 46% g/e from 65% g/e last month and are below last year’s late Feb 56% g/e, while KY also declined to 72% g/e from 86% g/e a month ago and last year’s 86% g/e. MT conditions ticked up to 69% g/e from 68% last month and are well above last year’s 37% g/e, while SD improved to 41% g/e from 32% last month, but remains well below last year’s 73% g/e. The USDA will begin issuing the regular weekly condition reports for all states on April 5, while KS and OK typically begin weekly updates in the beginning of March, while TX is already providing weekly updates.
 With the improvement in Argentine rains over the last several weeks, a reversal in crop ideas is beginning to be seen with some private estimates starting to move back higher. There have been ideas of the soybean crop back towards 50 MMT vs USDA’s 48.0 MMT estimate and corn crop ideas up towards 51 MMT vs USDA’s 47.5 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange recently raised their estimates to 49.0 MMT soybeans and 48.5 MMT corn.
 Agroconsult raised their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 134.0 MMT vs 132.4 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 133.0 MMT, CONAB at 133.8 MMT and last year’s 126.0 MMT USDA/124.8 MMT CONAB.
ï‚· Brazilian crop progress remains substantially delayed with soybean harvest 12% complete vs 7% last week, 27% average and 30% last year. Mato Grosso is now 34% complete vs 56% last year, reflecting roughly 12 MMT harvested so far, while the next most advanced harvest progress in Goias is 14% complete vs 31% average, accounting for around 2 MMT tonnes. Parana is still only 5% harvested vs 27% average, accounting for only around 1 MMT tonnes so far.
 With the considerable soybean harvest delays, Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is still only 14% planted vs 8% last week, 43% average and 47% last year. Topproducing Mato Grosso is only 22% planted vs 55% average.
 India appears set to harvest another massive, record-setting wheat crop this year with ideas pushing upwards of 115 MMT, shattering last year’s current record of 107.6 MMT, as favorable weather, no pest concerns and an estimated 3% increase in planted area combine to push production higher. While not traditionally an exporter of wheat, India did export an estimated 1.8 MMT last year, the highest in 6 years and with the notable increase in production again this year, stronger exports certainly would appear possible. State reserves are substantially above required levels, while domestic prices have been under considerable pressure in recent weeks amid the strong crop prospects. Total domestic demand had been stable in recent years at around 95-97 MMT, but increased solidly last year to 103 MMT with the record crop. Despite the demand increase, ending stocks are already at record levels given the size of last year’s crop so a further increase in exports certainly is possible/likely. For reference, the last substantial Indian wheat exports were 3.4 MMT in 2014/15, while record exports were 6.8 MMT in 2012/13. Indian wheat harvest occurs in April-May.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .20-.60†across around 50% of Goias and Minas Gerais yesterday, while all other areas were dry. Over the next 5 days, 1-2â€+ is expected for most areas north of Parana, which is an increase in amounts across MGDS and Sao Paulo, while all other areas see .25-.85â€+ with coverage of around 50%, which is a slight drop in coverage. The 6-10 day period shows 2-4†in Mato Grosso, Goias, MGDS, Sao Paulo and most of Parana, an increase for Sao Paulo, MGDS and Parana from previous forecasts. Totals across Santa Catarina and RGDS look to be in the .25-.75†range with little to no rain expected for Minas Gerais. Rains of generally less than .20†fell across the northern ½ of Buenos Aries yesterday, while other areas were dry. The next 5 days look mostly dry across Argentina, but the European continues to indicate the potential for .50-1â€+ in far northern sections of Santa Fe and southern Corrientes. In the 6-10 day period, .50-1†is expected for La Pampa and Cordoba, but mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere. While outside of the traditional forecasting timeframe, a well-followed private Argentine meteorological consultant sees the potential for an overall increase in rainfall amounts in mid-March, which would be beneficial to later planted crops