-China to allow applications for tariff exemptions on nearly 700 U.S. products
-Australia lowers wheat crop estimate
-NOPA soybean crush report out today – record Jan crush expected
-India sees record wheat crop
-Russian wheat export values down sharply again
-South America continues to see good rains
 China announced they will allow private importers to apply for tariff exemptions on the imports of nearly 700 different U.S. products, including soybeans, corn, wheat, ethanol, sorghum, pork, beef, and energies among many others, and will be granted on an individualized basis “based upon their business considerations.†Some traders expressed opinions that even with tariff exemptions, Brazilian soybeans would still be favored over U.S. at this time. There is optimism, though, as evidenced in overnight strength in wheat, particularly, but corn as well, that some U.S. sales to China may result. However, importers cannot begin applying for tariff exemptions until March 2. Once granted, the exemptions would be valid for one year. At this time, it is not clear if the application process will include the need to specify a quantity requested for each individual application for an exemption. While still vague, this announcement does signal the most substantial opening of export prospects of various U.S. ag products to China since the Phase One deal signing.
 Australia lowered their estimate of the 2019/20 wheat crop to 15.2 MMT from 15.85 MMT previously and is modestly below the USDA’s latest estimate of 15.6 MMT. Additionally, the crop would be down from last year’s 17.3 MMT and the lowest in 12 years. Some private estimates still look for the crop to prove lower, possibly around 14.5 MMT. Private ideas of Australian wheat exports have been cited as low as 7.0-7.5 MMT vs USDA last at 8.2 MMT and last year’s 9.0 MMT. The reduction in ABARES’ crop estimate, combined with the Chinese tariff exemption announcement prompted the strong gains in wheat overnight.
 NOPA’s monthly soybean crush report is due out today at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of January soybean crush by NOPA members is 173.7 million bushels (171.0-177.0 million range of ideas) an would be down slightly from 174.8 million in December, but above last year’s 171.6 million making it a record for the month. The average estimate of end January soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.782 billion pounds (1.650-1.875 bil range), up from 1.757 billion in December, solidly above last year’s Jan stocks of 1.549 billion and would be the highest Jan stocks since 2014.
 China lifted its ban on imports of live poultry from the U.S., in place since 2015 due to the finding of avian influenza at the time, and with the change now allowing for the import of all poultry products from the U.S. once again. As the coronavirus continues to significantly impact China’s domestic production potential given the transportation and open market restrictions, this change is seen possibly improving domestic availability of poultry meat as current Chinese operations pull back production given the inability to market their birds.
 India sees this year’s wheat crop rising 2.5% from last year to a new all-time record 106.2 MMT, with total foodgrain production expected at a record 292.0 MMT, as well, following the strong monsoon rains. USDA last estimated their wheat crop at 102.2 MMT.
 China’s imports of palm oil from Indonesia have been significantly impacted by reduced demand as a result of the coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia has exported just 84k tonnes of palm oil to China so far in February vs 483k tonnes exported in January and 371k tonnes exported in the entire month of February last year. China accounted for 19% of all Indonesian palm oil exports in 2019.
ï‚· Russian wheat export values declined for the 3rd consecutive week, with 12.5% protein Black Sea supplies dropping $6/tonne last week to $220/tonne fob.
ï‚· South Korea bought 135k tonnes of optional-origin corn at $211.79/tonne c&f for mid-June arrival and is not expected to be U.S. origin.
ï‚· Morocco tendered for 354k tonnes of U.S. durum wheat for May 31 arrival under preferential tariff quotas, with results of the tender to be decided by March 5.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 2/11/20 showed funds largely net sellers in grain markets. Funds were net sellers of 16.1k contracts in corn (net short 72.1k), 15.2k SBO (net long 52.7k), 9.8k soybeans (net short 92.2k), 6.2k SBO wheat (net long 45.9k), 3.8k SBM (record net short 68.2k) and 2.2k MPLS wheat (net short 6.9k). Funds were net buyers of 2.2k contracts in KCBT wheat (10.5k net long).
Weather Rains of .50-1.5†fell across most Argentine growing regions over the weekend. Mostly dry conditions are expected until the middle of next week when .50- 1.5†is expected for areas north of Buenos Aires/La Pampa. Brazil saw rains of .50-1.5â€+ across the western 2/3 of RGDS and Santa Catarina and up across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais over the weekend. Rains of .50-1â€+ will fall in RGDS today and early tomorrow and then will go on to bring similar results to Santa Catarina and Parana for the second half of the week. Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of .50-1.5 to most areas north of Parana in the next 5 days. An additional .50-1.5†are expected for most areas in the 6-10 day period, as well.