-Australian wheat crop sharply raised to new record
-Russian new crop wheat ideas bumped higher
-NOPA report at 11:00 AM CT
-USDA Outlook Forum Thur-Fri
Due to the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday, regular reports will be delayed one day this week with Export Inspections out later this morning, EIA ethanol data on Thursday and Export Sales on Friday. CFTC’s COT data will still be released on Friday, as usual, though. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum is Thursday-Friday.
 ABARES sharply raised their estimate of the Australian wheat crop to a record 33.34 MMT from 31.17 MMT previously in December and easily surpassed the previous record of 31.8 MMT in 2016/17. USDA last estimated the crop at 30.0 MMT, while last year’s drought-ravaged production was a 12-year low of 15.2 MMT. They also raised the barley crop to a near record 13.1 MMT (13.5 MMT record 16/17) from 12.0 MMT previously and last year’s 9.0 MMT, while the canola crop was raised to 4.1 MMT from 3.7 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 2.3 MMT (4.3 MMT record 16/17).
 IKAR raised their estimate of Russia’s new crop wheat production by 1 MMT to 78.0 MMT citing favorable winter conditions so far. However, a decline from this year’s USDA record-estimated crop of 85.3 MMT is expected.
 Russia’s 17.5 MMT grain export quota (wheat, barley, corn, rye combined) went into effect February 15 and will last until June 30. Last year during the Feb-June period, Russia exported 14.9 MMT of grains, with wheat accounting for 10.9 MMT. The temporary export duty structure is now also in place with 25 euros/tonne assessed for wheat until March 1, then rising to 50 euros/tonne, while the duty on barley (10 euros) and corn (25 euros) will go into effect on March 15. Beginning in June, Russia will move to a floating export duty structure.
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for LH March-April shipment if sourced from the EU (France) as is likely. Algeria last bought wheat in January of more than 600k tonnes, believed priced from $312-$313/tonne c&f.
 NOPA will release their monthly crush report today at 11:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate for January NOPA soybean crush is 183.1 million bushels (180.0-186.3 million range of ideas), essentially unchanged from December’s 183.2 million and would reflects an expected 3.5% (6.2 million bushel) increase from last year’s Jan NOPA crush of 176.9 million. Based on the average estimate, U.S.-total crush for January would be implied around 193.7 million bushels vs last year’s 188.8 million, putting marketing year-to-date crush at 946 million bushels vs last year’s 898 million, leaving Feb-Aug crush needing to decline modestly to 1.254 billion bushels vs last year’s 1.267 billion in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel marketing year estimate. The average estimate of end January soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.763 billion pounds (1.710-1.850 billion range of ideas), up from 1.699 billion in December, but below last year’s Jan NOPA stocks of 2.013 billion
pounds, but still the 2nd highest of the last seven years.
 While the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be fully virtual, we anticipate the same structure as in the past regarding the various data releases. Typically, Thursday morning’s info provides USDA’s new crop acreage ideas along with average farm price expectations for the coming year, while Friday morning’s releases include the full new crop balance sheet ideas. A wire service survey of market participants indicated average expectations for new crop corn acres at 92.9 million acres (91.5-96.0 million range) vs last year’s 90.8 million, soybeans at 89.8 million (87.0-92.0 million range) vs 83.1 million last year, all wheat 45.3 million (42.0-47.0 million range) vs 44.3 million last year and cotton 11.8 million (11.0-12.6 million range) vs 12.1 million last year.
Weather
Rains of 1-3†fell across Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais over the weekend, with totals of .50-1.5†falling elsewhere. Rains of 2-4†will fall in most of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and the northern ½ of MGDS in the next 5 days, while generally less than .35†will be scattered across the rest of the Brazilian growing regions. Most areas are expected to see 1-2†in the 6-10 day period. Rains of .25-.75†fell across all Argentine growing regions over the weekend. The next five days looks mostly dry with the exception of.50-1â€+ in far western growing regions. The 6-10 day period shows generally less than .50†amounts with coverage around 75%.