-Brazil raises soybean/safrinha corn crop estimates
-China leaves corn/soybean balance sheet ideas unchanged
-Egypt tenders for wheat – Romanian/Russia aggressive
-Good rains in forecast for nearly all South American growing areas
-USDA report today at 11:00 AM CT
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38897. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. The USDA’s annual Ag Outlook conference is next Thursday/Friday, February 20-21, providing the first “unofficial†USDA ideas for 2020/21.
 CONAB raised their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 123.3 MMT from 122.2 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 115.0 MMT. USDA was last at 123.0 MMT, while the average trade estimate for today’s USDA update is 123.6 MMT. CONAB lowered their estimate of the 1st corn crop to 26.1 MMT from 26.6 MMT previously, but would still be up slightly from last year’s 25.6 MMT, but they solidly raised early ideas of the 2nd corn crop (safrinha) to 73.3 MMT from 70.9 MMT previously and would be marginally above last year’s 73.2 MMT. Safrinha production ideas were raised due to higher planted area expectations, now at 32.7 million acres vs 31.8 mil previously and 31.8 mil last year. CONAB’s total corn crop estimate now stands at 100.5 MMT vs 98.5 MMT previously and last year’s 100.0 MMT. The USDA was last at 101.0 MMT, while the average trade estimate for today’s USDA report is 100.6 MMT. CONAB left their estimate of new crop corn exports unchanged, though, at 34.0 MMT, which would be down solidly from this year’s 41.2 MMT in what is a continuing of their pattern in recent years of alternating between years of massive exports, typically over-exporting, and then pulling them back the following year. CONAB stated they are currently reevaluating their old crop supply/demand balance sheet following data showing exports have been considerably stronger than official balance sheet ideas reflect.
 One of the U.S.’ largest ethanol producers, Green Plains, Inc., with total production capacity of around 1.1 billion gallons according to the RFA, announced a strategic shift in their business model to move to become a high-protein, corn-based animal feed producer, with ethanol becoming a co-/byproduct of their operations vs being the main product focus. The move is being made in order to survive the very difficult environment the ethanol industry continues to deal with in flat domestic demand, weak margins and an oversupplied marketplace.
 China left their corn and soybean balance sheet ideas completely unchanged in this month’s “update,†in what appears to largely be a waitand-see attitude regarding potential impacts on demand from the coronavirus epidemic and allowing the African swine fever situation to continue to play out. Their 2019/20 soybean import estimate stands at 87.7 MMT vs USDA last at 85.0 MMT and 82.8 MMT last year, with total soybean consumption at 105.5 MMT (USDA 102.7 MMT) vs 102.9 MMT last year. China’s total corn consumption estimate remains as 280.8 MMT (USDA 279.0 MMT) vs 274.8 MMT last year, with imports at 3.0 MMT (USDA 7.0 MMT) and 4.5 MMT last year.
ï‚· White House advisor Larry Kudrow said in a Bloomberg interview Chinese President Xi Jinping told President Trump, in a phone conversation, they would still meet their Phase One purchasing targets despite the coronavirus situation.
 France’s second update of estimated winter grain planted area largely confirmed initial ideas for a roughly 5.6% decline in soft wheat area for the 2020/21 crop. Winter rapeseed planted area is estimated down 2.1% from last year.
 Algeria bought an estimated 660k tonnes of wheat following their recent tender, with prices believed to be $237.50-$237.75/tonne c&f. France is typically Algeria’s main supplier but details of the expected source(s) were not provided. Algeria last bought 400k tonnes of wheat on January 22 at $245/tonne c&f.
 Yesterday after the close, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for March 21-31 shipment. The lowest offers were Romanian wheat at $239.97-$240.22/tonne c&f ($228.29-$228.54 fob), with Russian close behind at $240.99/tonne c&f ($228.99 fob). Ukrainian wheat was offered at $229.95/tonne fob. There was no French wheat offered in this tender, but Romania and Russia were aggressive, offering a total of 880k tonnes. Egypt’s last purchase on January 30 was 180k tonnes French wheat at $246.10/tonne c&f for March 11-25shipment.
Weather Argentina is expected to see rains of .50-1†in northern sections of Santa Fe and Entre Rios, with totals of .20-.60†elsewhere later Thursday into Friday. The next event now shows 1-2â€+ for most areas next Monday, an increase in the amounts from yesterday’s ideas. Brazil looks dry from Parana south this week. Beginning Friday, rains of .50-1.5†with widespread coverage in the south are expected. Over the next 5 days, areas north of Parana see widespread .50-1.5†amounts. Nearly all areas appear on tap for another .50-1.5†in the 6-10 day period.