-USDA report today at 11:00 AM CT – trade estimate summary included
-China leaves corn/soybean balance sheet ideas unchanged
-No USDA sales announcements
-France bumps winter wheat area ideas higher
USDA will release the monthly WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42847. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 China left their 2020/21 corn balance sheet ideas completely unchanged this month, with imports still reflected at only 10.0 MMT (7.6 MMT last year) and total consumption at 289.2 MMT (278.3 MMT last year), resulting in an expected 18.5 MMT decline in total corn stocks at the end of the year following 2019/20’s 9.9 MMT stocks decline and 18.2 MMT decline in 2018/19. According to Export Sales data, China officially has 17.7 MMT of U.S. corn bought alone and likely closer to 20-22 MMT when taking into account “unknown†sales, along with unknown quantities from other sources. China also left their 2020/21 soybean balance sheet completely unchanged this month with imports at 98.1 MMT (98.5 MMT last year), total consumptions at 116.1 MMT (108.6 MMT last year) and ending stocks estimated to rise 1.4 MMT from last year following 2019/20’s 7.9 MMT increase in stocks. Their estimate of 20/21 total vegoil imports was unchanged from last month at 8.45 MMT (9.27 MMT last year), as was estimated total vegoil domestic usage at 35.32 MMT (32.87 MMT last year), with total stocks expected to rise 1.11 MMT vs 1.03 MMT estimated last month and last year’s 4.43 MMT rise in stocks. China does not provide actual stocks estimates in their monthly reports, instead reflecting the expected change from the previous year.
 Argentina’s oilseed crushing association CIARA and the government reportedly reached some sort of agreement which would help keep domestic vegoil prices under control, with the goal of easing tensions over the government’s continued threats of establishing export limits and/or further tax increases moving forward.
 France raised their estimate of winter wheat planted area to 4.86 million hectares (12.0 mil acres) from 4.73 mil hectares (11.7 mil acres) previous, now reflecting a considerable 15.2% increase from last year’s 4.22 mil hectares (10.4 mil acres) and slightly above the most-recent 5-year average of 4.82 mil hectares. Many private ideas are said to still be higher yet at around 5.0 mil hectares (12.36 mil acres). Winter rapeseed area was bumped down to 1.0 mil hectares (2.5 mil acres) from 1.13 mil hectares previous and is down nearly 10% from last year, 26% below the 5-year average and the lowest since 1997.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
ï‚· The Philippines bought an estimated 224k tonnes of feed wheat, likely Australian and/or EU/Black Sea origin, for April-June
shipment and believed to be priced around $300/tonne c&f.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .50-1.5â€+ across Minas Gerais and far northern Goias and Mato Grosso yesterday, with dry conditions elsewhere. Most growing areas will see 1-2†in the next 5 days. The heavier rains are expected to remain across in MGDS, Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in the 6-10 day period with 2-4â€, while other areas see .50-1.5â€+.
Argentina was dry yesterday with the exception of .25-.75†across far western growing regions. The 1-5 day outlook shows .50-1.5†in the eastern ½ of Buenos Aries and Entre Rios, as well as most of Corrientes, while the 6-10 day period now looks like .25-.75†with roughly 50% coverage with no strong location bias.