-Soybeans lower on S. American rains, wheat higher
-China wheat auction interest surges
-China Dec corn imports surge
-Russian wheat prices sharply higher
-China pig crop recovery continues full steam ahead
The soybean complex is solidly lower this morning following good weekend South American rains and sharply lower Malaysian palm oil prices. Wheat is higher on overnight strength in European markets, leaving corn caught in the middle.
ï‚· As expected given the late start to planting, early Brazilian soybean harvest is off to a slow start with less than 1% of the crop harvested vs 2% at this time last year according to AgRural. They put harvest of the 1st corn crop at 3.4% vs 2.5% a year ago.
ï‚· China reported total corn imports in December were 2.25 MMT vs 1.23 MMT in November and 730k tonnes last year Dec, putting 2020 calendar year imports at a record 11.3 MMT vs 4.8 MMT last year. Ideas within China for 2020/21 total corn imports from all sources to exceed 30 MMT are common. China imported 880k tonnes of wheat in December vs 800k in Nov and 500k tonnes last year, putting 2020 total imports at 8.4 MMT vs 3.5 MMT last year. China imported 980k tonnes of barley in Dec, with 2020 total imports of 8.1 MMT vs 5.9 MMT last year, while Dec sorghum imports of 550k tonnes brought 2020 total imports to 4.8 MMT vs 0.8 MMT last year.
 China’s weekly wheat auction saw purchases surge again with 3.94 MMT bought, 99.7% of the offered amount, while the average price paid jumped to 2,504 yuan/tonne ($386/tonne, $10.51/bu) from 2,365 yuan/tonne ($365, $9.93/bu) a week earlier. The previous week’s auction saw a 52.2% sale rate, while two weeks ago was only 14.4%. A resurgence of COVID cases in China, with new cases reportedly at a 10-month high prompting lockdowns of 28 million people across Hebei and Heilongjiang, prompted feed manufacturers to secure supplies given the renewed uncertainty over possible restrictions on grain movement/logistics.
ï‚· China reported its nationwide pig herd at the end of December was 406.5 million head, up 31% from the roughly 310 million head at the end of 2019, with the recovery continuing full steam and up from 370 million head at the end of September.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2021/22, as well as 128k tonnes of corn to Japan and 100k tonnes of corn to Israel for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
ï‚· Russian wheat export prices surged last week, ahead of the planned mid-February start of the export tax, with 12.5% protein Black Sea supplies up $23/tonne on the week to $298 fob, according to IKAR. IKAR bumped their estimate of 2020/21 Russian wheat exports down to 37.5 MMT from 38.5 MMT previously (USDA 39.0 MMT/34.5 MMT last year).
 Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA said they see no grounds to limit corn exports as requested by domestic livestock/poultry producers last week. A decision on possible export limits is expected January 25. However, a recent surge in demand for Ukrainian corn has resulted in a $23-$26/ tonne jump in corn prices so far in January to a record $256-$264/tonne fob Black Sea, according to APK-Inform. IKAR lowered their Ukrainian corn export estimate to 22.0 MMT from 23.0 MMT previously (USDA 24.0 MMT/28.9 MMT last year).
ï‚· The Philippines passed on their recent tender for 100k tonnes of feed wheat and 80k tonnes of barley citing prices offered being too high. Turkey postponed their tender for 400k tonnes of wheat from today until Friday. Taiwan tendered for 65k tonnes of optional-origin corn for March-April shipment with offers due by tomorrow. Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Feb shipment, with offers due by tomorrow, as well.
Weather
Rains of .50-1.25â€+ fell across nearly 100% of Brazilian growing regions over the weekend. The week ahead looks to bring 1-3â€+ across Santa Catarina, Parana, MGDS, Mato Grosso and northern RGDS, with amounts of .50-1†in Sao Paulo and Goias, while little in the way of rains are seen for Minas Gerais. Rains continue in the 6-10 day period with 1-2†expected for RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana and .50-1.25â€+ in all other areas. Argentina saw widespread .50-1â€+ rains across all growing regions early in the weekend. The next five days look dry across Argentina. The 6-10 day outlook is mixed with the European model indicating conditions to remain mostly dry, while the GFS sees rains early and again late in the period to bring totals of .60-1.25†to most regions. There is a bit more confidence in the GFS at this time as its forecast is more consistent with
previous ideas vs the European’s change.