-China raises corn/soybean import estimates
-Argentina sees decent widespread rains, more expected
-USDA reports soybeans sold to unknown
-Russia considering higher wheat export tax
-Egypt passes on wheat tender
-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT – trade estimate summary included
USDA will release the annual Crop Production report, quarterly Grain Stocks report, WASDE supply/demand report and Winter
Wheat Seedings report today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42557. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 In China’s official monthly balance sheet update, they raised 2020/21 estimated corn imports to 10.0 MMT from 7.0 MMT
previously (7.6 MMT last year), but appears to remain notably too low given they have officially bought 11.7 MMT of U.S. corn so far (likely closer to 14 MMT assuming some “unknown†sales), as well as an uncertain amount of non-U.S. origin corn, as well. USDA is last at 16.5 MMT for Chinese corn imports. China lowered their estimate of this year’s corn crop to 260.7 MMT from 264.7 MMT previously (260.8 MMT last year) and bumped total demand up to 289.2 MMT from 288.2 MMT previously (278.3 MMT last year), prompting a modestly larger estimated net decline in corn stocks from last year to 18.5 MMT vs 16.5 MMT estimated last month. USDA is currently estimated Chinese corn stocks to decline 9.0 MMT from last year. They also raised their soybean import estimate to 98.1 MMT from 95.1 MMT previously (USDA 100.0 MMT) vs 98.5 MMT last year, with total demand raised to 116.1 MMT from 113.1 MMT previously and 108.6 MMT last year. With the increase in imports and a 0.8 MMT increase in estimated production to 19.6 MMT, China sees 2020/21 soybean ending stocks rising 1.4 MMT from last year vs previous ideas for a 650k tonne increase. China left their 2020/21 edible oils estimates unchanged from last month (in total, as well as individual oils), reflecting total imports of 8.45 MMT vs 9.27 MMT last year and total demand of 33.8 MMT vs 32.9 MT last year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 120k tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 2020/21 delivery.
ï‚· Russia is reportedly considering putting the planned wheat export tax for February 15-June 30 period at 50 euros/tonne vs the previously-announced 25 euro/tonne rate as domestic prices have not cooled enough in response to tax being initiated.
ï‚· After receiving only four offers in a tender for wheat for Feb 18-March 5 shipment, Egypt canceled the tender, deciding to make no purchases. The lowest offer was Romanian at $306.62/tonne c&f ($292.97 fob), while French wheat was offered at
$313.31/tonne c&f ($293.86 fob) and Russian offered at $317.20 c&f ($297.75 fob). The lack of interest in the tender was likely
the result of idea Russia may raise the wheat export tax as mentioned above.
ï‚· Turkey bought 155k tonnes of corn for Jan 25-Feb 15 shipment at $265.65-$268.00/tonne c&f.
Weather
Rains of 1-2†fell across the southern 2/3 of RGDS, with totals of .25-.75â€+ in around 80% of Mato Grosso Goias, Minas Gerais,
eastern MGDS and northern Sao Paulo yesterday. Over the next five days, 1-3†is expected for most areas to the north of Parana, with .75-1.5â€+ in the rest of Brazilian growing regions. Rains continue in the 6-10 day period with 1-3â€+ expected for most areas, with the exception of western Minas Gerais, where totals of .50-1†are seen. In Argentina, widespread .50-1â€+ rains were seen for most areas yesterday, with only La Pampa missing out on the activity. Conditions look to be mainly dry through Thursday and then by Friday and Saturday, the next front looks to arrive on the scene and bring .75-1.5â€+, with coverage of close to 100%. Mostly dry conditions are expected for the 6-10 day period at this time.