-Brazil lowers soybean/corn crop estimates but maintain record outlooks for now
-Attache sees lower Argentine soybean crop
-Supreme Court backs previous ruling limiting E15 summer sales
-China maintains DDGS anti-dumping duties
-South American rain ideas trimmed but still improved overall
-USDA reports tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
-USDA reports routine soybean sales to Mexico
USDA’s Annual Crop Production report, quarterly Grain Stocks report, Winter Wheat Seedings report and WASDE supply/demand balance sheet report will all be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis is available on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/46284. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page.
 CONAB lowered their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 140.5 MMT from 142.8 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 144.0 MMT and 137.3 MMT last year CONAB/138.0 MMT USDA. CONAB’s reduction is rather modest compared to some private estimates over the last week or so pushing the crop as low as 131 MMT and not all that surprising given their typical conservative approach to crop revisions. In our opinion, the jury is still out on the degree of crop losses due to the dry conditions across southern growing areas as there is still time in the region for conditions to stabilize in even improve with an increase in rainfall, which current forecasts are indicating. Whether the forecast for better rains over the next week or so reflects an outright pattern change or just a one-time rain event will be very important for crop prospects in the region. CONAB lowered their estimate of the total corn crop to 112.9 MMT from 117.2 MMT previously and compares to USDA at 118.0 MMT and 87.0 MMT last year (CONAB and USDA). CONAB lowered their estimate of the 1st corn crop (currently growing) to 24.8 MMT from 29.1 MMT previously and near unchanged from last year’s 24.7 MMT. They left their estimate of the safrinha crop (not yet planted) unchanged from last month at 86.3 MMT and reflects a massive increase from last year’s 60.7 MMT and easily a new record. Despite the reductions in the soybean and corn crop estimates by CONAB, both estimates still reflect record crops.
 The USDA ag attaché in Argentina sees the soybean crop at 46.5 MMT, below the USDA’s current 49.5 MMT, and little-changed from last year’s USDA-estimated 46.2 MMT, but which the attaché estimates was lower at 44.5 MMT, with the reduced crop ideas obviously due to the hot/dry conditions across much of the country’s growing regions of late. The attaché is holding onto new crop soybean exports ideas of 5.35 MMT, in line with USDA’s official estimate and essentially unchanged from last year’s 5.4 MMT, while they see new crop crush at 41.5 MMT vs USDA at 42.0 MMT and 41.3 MMT last year (USDA 42.2 MMT old crop). The attaché’s ability to maintain demand ideas despite the cut in production is due to their belief old crop soybean stocks were 11.1 MMT, solidly above USDA’s 7.9 MMT ideas (stocks 2 years ago (19/20) estimated at 13.9 MMT by attaché vs 11.8 MMT USDA).
ï‚· Brazilian ag exporter association Anec now sees January soybean exports from the country at 4.27 MMT, up from previous ideas of 3.38 MMT, 2.71 MMT in December and a mere 50k tonnes exported last year January. They see Jan corn exports at 2.65 MMT (2.59 MMT previously) vs 2.36 MMT last year and 3.44 MMT in December.
ï‚· South Korea bought 259k tonnes of corn at prices ranging from $333.65-$338.35/tonne c&f for April arrival, while offers for 65k tonnes of feed wheat at $341.50/tonne c&f were rejected. Turkey tendered for 335k tonnes of milling wheat for Feb 10-Mar 10 shipment with offers due by 11/18/22.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 100k tonnes of soybeans to Mexico for 21/22 delivery this morning.
ï‚· China said current anti-dumping/anti-subsidy duties on U.S. DDGS will remain in place for the next year (until 1/12/23) as they conduct an expiry review requested by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association. The current anti-dumping duty is 42.2-53.7%, while anti-subsidy tariffs are 11.2-12.0%.
ï‚· The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the oil industry in not allowed E15 ethanol blends during summer months. The Trump administration had issued a waiver in 2019 allowing year-round sales of E15 blends, but an appeals court vacated it saying the EPA overstepped their authority and now backed by the Supreme Court.