 Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn planting delays are quickly and notably mounting as only 14% of the U.S. crop is now planted vs 7% the previous week, average of 33% and last year’s 42% pace. Average market expectations were for 16% to be planted. IL is only 7% planted vs 43% average, while IA is only 9% vs 42% average. By mid-May, typically 67% of the U.S. crop has been planted so a quick pickup in activity is clearly needed in short order. Weather forecasts are on the bit more favorable side for the next week+. Soybean planting is now 8% complete, in line with expectations, with early delays relative to average of 13% and last year’s 22%. IL is 5% planted vs 19% avg, while IA is 4% vs 17% avg. By late May, typically 67% of the U.S. soybean crop is planted so the next few weeks will be watched very closely. U.S. spring wheat planting is 19% complete vs 20% expected, 28% average and 46% last year. ND is only 5% planted vs 18% avg, while SD is 48% complete and mostly in line with average of 51%.
 U.S. winter wheat crop conditions held steady last week at 27% good/excellent vs average market ideas for a 1% improvement and compare to 48% g/e at this time last year. Based on the weighted condition index calculation, winter wheat conditions are tied with 1996 for the lowest on record starting in 1990. On a byclass basis, HRW conditions are the lowest ever since we’ve been calculating state acreage-weighted conditions since 1999, while SRW conditions the lowest for early May of the last three years and 2nd lowest of the last 8 years, and winter white wheat conditions are marginally below last year’s at this time to be the lowest in seven years. Hopefully, the improved rains across the central/southern plains will see conditions start to improve in the coming weeks.
 For full details of yesterday afternoons’ Crop Progress update, please see our Market Insights post at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/47235.
ï‚· As expected, the EPA sent their proposed final biofuel blending rules for 2020, 2021 and 2022 compliance years to the White house for review, with details of the proposed specific blending mandates not yet known/available.
 APK-Inform estimates that roughly 61 MMT of Ukraine’s nationwide grain storage capacity of 75 MMT is actually currently available, as 14 MMT is in locations of active Russian military activity. Moreover, they see the potential for 2021/22 end marketing year total grain stocks to be around 21.3 MMT, more than 4 times end 20/21 level and accounting for 35% of realistic total storage capacity prior to the new crop harvest. The consultant is eyeing a potential total grain/oilseed
harvest this year of around 55.9 MMT vs last year’s 86 MMT, which could result in a storage shortfall of around 16 MMT.
 Ukrainian grain traders union UGA said 1.27 million hectares (3.1 mil acres) of corn have been planted so far, 33% of the potential 3.9 mil ha (9.6 mil acres) total planted area this season vs USDA’s estimated corn area last year of 5.5 mil ha (13.6 mil acres). They said a total of 4.7 mil ha (11.6 mil acres) of spring crops have been planted, roughly 31% of the estimated 11.45 mil ha (28.3 mil acres) possible total area, which would be down 3.5-4.0 mil ha from last year.
 Grain export tariffs for shipments from the Danube River have increased exponentially in opportunistic market-condition fashion, as Ukraine attempts to ship increasing volumes by the waterway. Prior to Russia’s invasion, shipping tariffs were 5-6 euros/tonne, but have jumped to 20 euros/tonnes for May shipments.
 Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Oilseeds Crushings report showed March U.S. soybean crush was 192.8 million bushels, in line with expectations, while end March soybean oil stocks of 2.434 billion pounds were also right in line with market ideas. For full details of the March data, see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/47233. Details of the monthly Grain Crushings report, which showed no surprises with 454.9 million bushels of corn being used for ethanol production in March, are in our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/47234.
ï‚· CBOT May wheat deliveries were 159 contracts (LTD 4/28/22) vs 968 yesterday, while KCBT wheat deliveries were 13 contracts (LTD 4/29/22) vs 100 yesterday with no MPLS wheat deliveries today. There have yet to be and May corn, soybean, SBM or SBO deliveries.
