-USDA Oilseeds Crushing report on Thursday
-January soycomplex first notice day deliveries larger than expected
-Argentina sees very good rains, more added in 6-10 day period
-Funds continue to cover shorts
We’d like to wish everyone a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!
Grain markets will have a normal trading session today, be fully closed on Wednesday, January 1 with no overnight trade and a hard opening at 8:30 AM CT on Thursday.
 Thursday afternoon, USDA will put out the monthly Oilseeds Crushing report for November data. The average estimate of U.S.- wide soybean crush in November is 175.9 million bushels (175.0-177.0 million range of ideas), which would be 6.7% above NOPA-member crush for the month, exactly the same deviation as was seen in October. The average estimate reflects a pullback from U.S. total crush in October of 187.2 million bushels and a slight decline from last year’s Nov crush of 178.1 mil bu. The average estimate of end November U.S. soybean oil stocks is 1.839 billion pounds (1.802-1.870 billion range of ideas), up slightly from 1.821 billion in October, but modestly below last year’s Nov stocks of 1.900 billion pounds. The average estimate reflects U.S. total stocks 27.0% above NOPA stocks, in line with the 28.0% difference in October and 26.7% average difference over the last previous three months.
 A White House trade adviser said on the Phase One trade deal with China, “We’ll probably have a signing on that within the next week or so – we’re just waiting for the translation.†The Chinese delegation traveling to Washington is expected to stay until the middle of next week.
ï‚· First notice day January soybean deliveries were 795 contracts (12/30/19 last trade date) and all were put out by JP Morgan (Cargill). Wire service-reported ideas were for deliveries mostly in the 300-700 range, with a some as high as 1,100 and others looking for just 0-100 contracts. Soybean meal saw 1,355 contracts put out (12/03/19 last trade date), well above most expectations of 200-500 contracts with 675 by JP Morgan (Cargill) and 223 by ABM AMRO, with FC Stone stopping 1,215. soybean oil deliveries of 1,003 contracts (12/27/19 last trade date) were at the top of expectation up to 500-1,000 contracts.
 Malaysian palm oil/product exports in December fell to 1.325 MMT, according to SGS, from 1.410 MMT in November and 1.340 MMT last year December. Malaysian palm oil futures were down sharply (-2.4%) overnight on end-of-year profit taking ahead of the New Year’s holiday following the recent strong rally in prices.
 Yesterday afternoon’s delayed CFTC COT data, which was as of a week ago (12/24/19) showed funds net buyers across the grain complex (exception being CBOT wheat) as net short positions continue to be reduced. As of last Tuesday, funds were still net short 85k contracts in corn, 33k soybeans, 24k SBM, 15k MPLS wheat, and 5k KCBT wheat. Funds added to their net long in SBO by 16k contracts to 119k (record is 126.5k), while reducing their net long in CBOT wheat by 5.6k contracts to 19.1k.
Weather Rains of 1-2â€+ fell across around 95% of the Argentine growing regions yesterday. Conditions look to be mainly dry for the rest of the week, with just a few light showers falling in southern Buenos Aries. Changes to the 6-10 day outlook added rains of .40-1â€, with areas of 1â€+ to fall in most areas. In Brazil, rains of .30-1†fell across far northern Mato Grosso and Goias yesterday, with dry weather otherwise. Tropical, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of 1-2â€, with areas of 2â€+ to most of the Brazilian growing regions north of Parana, with rains of .30-1†to fall from Parana south later today and tomorrow. In the 6-10 day period, rains of 1-2â€+ look to fall in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and eastern MGDS, with totals of .25-.75†in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions.