-Crop condition decline/weaker rain ideas support grains
-US spring wheat conditions fall to lowest on record
-Near record wheat crop for Morocco
-Egypt/others tender for wheat
Grain markets moved higher overnight following the slight decline in U.S. corn and soybean conditions in yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress update vs expectations for steady/improving conditions. While the eastern belt may see moderate rains over the coming days, current ideas by some models show limited to no rains for much of IA, IL, MN and the Dakotas. Temperature ideas are still trending less concerning, though, with the 6-15 day forecast now cooler than previous ideas.
 U.S. corn crop conditions declined by 1% in good/excellent last week to 64% g/e vs ideas for unchanged conditions with increases of 3% in IL, 4% MO, 1% OH and 8% MI more than offset by declines of 3% in IA, 4% MN, 8% ND and 2% NE. Overall corn conditions are slightly below the 5-year average, but above the 10-year average, while continuing to run below last year’s 72% g/e at this time. Nationwide, 79% of the crop is silking vs 73% average, with MN, IA, IL and IN all 80-91%.
 U.S. soybean conditions declined 2% in g/e last week to 58% vs ideas for steady conditions and remain well below last year’s 72% g/e at this time. Improvements last week were in IL by 4%, MO 5%, OH 1% and MI 8%, while IA was down 5% in g/e, MN 7%, KS 6% and ND and SD by 3%. Overall soybean conditions are the 3rd worst of the last 9 years for late July. 76% of the crop nationwide is blooming vs 71% average.
ï‚· U.S. spring wheat conditions fell the lowest on record for late July with another 2% decline in g/e to only 9%. While ND and SD were unchanged, MT was down another 8% and MN down 6%. The spring wheat crop is 3% harvested vs 2% average.
ï‚· U.S. winter wheat harvest is 84% complete vs 81% average.
 For full details of yesterday’s Crop Progress update, see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44654.
ï‚· Indonesia produced 4.56 million kl (1.18 bil gallons) of biodiesel in the first half of 2021 vs 4.88 mil kl (1.29 bil gal) last year, with domestic consumption continuing to account for nearly all demand at 4.17 mil kl (1.10 bil gal) during the period vs 4.18 mil kl last year. Biodiesel exports by Indonesia remain nearly non-existent with only 22k kl exported during Jan-June vs 10k kl last year.
 China will offer 252k tonnes of imported corn at this week’s state reserve corn auction, 202k U.S. origin and 50k Ukrainian origin.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Sept 20-30 shipment. The lowest offer was Ukrainian at $279.00/tonne c&f ($244.50 fob), with Romanian wheat offered at $280.91/tonne c&f ($247.86 fob). The lowest Russian offer was $250.00 fob.
ï‚· Pakistan also tendered for 110k tonnes of wheat, while Turkey tendered for 395k tonnes wheat and 515k tonnes feed barley.
 The rollercoaster nature of Morocco’s grain production continued this year with the Ag Ministry reporting the total wheat crop at 7.54 MMT, the 2nd highest on record after 2015/16’s 8.08 MMT and up massively from last year’s 13 year-low drought-afflicted 2.56 MMT. With the large crop, a decent reduction in imports from last year’s record 5.7 MMT should be seen, with imports ranging from 3.7-5.7 MMT annually over the last 10 years.