-Malaysian Jan palm oil stocks lowest since June 2017, but weak demand weighs on prices
-CFTC data shows funds move to record net short in SBM
-Generally favorable South American weather continues
-Algeria tenders for wheat
-USDA/CONAB numbers out tomorrow
-Trade estimate summary for WASDE report
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38897. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. CONAB’s monthly updates of their Brazilian crop estimates are due out tomorrow morning, as well.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported the country’s end January palm oil stocks were 1.755 MMT, in line with average market expectations of 1.760 MMT and down solidly from 2.011 MMT in December and substantially below year ago Jan stocks of 3.001 MMT. This was the fifth consecutive month of declining stocks and are now at the lowest level since June 2017. Despite the MPOB’s data confirming the expected decline in stocks to multi-year lows, palm oil futures were solidly lower overnight as the overriding demand concerns, amid the political skirmish with India and China’s coronavirus epidemic, took precedence. Malaysian palm oil exports in January were 1.214 MMT, below average expectations of 1.282 MMT, and down sharply from 1.398 MMT in Dec and 1.676 MMT last year Jan. Moreover, exports to India in January were just 47k tonnes, massively below year ago Jan exports of roughly 319k tonnes and the lowest monthly exports in 9 years, while exports to China of 177k tonnes were the lowest since July and nearly half of last year’s January exports. Malaysia produced 1.166 MMT of palm oil in January, below average market expectations of 1.214 MMT, down from 1.334 MMT in December, sharply below year ago Jan production of 1.737 MMT and the lowest monthly production since February 2016.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 2/04/20 showed funds widespread net sellers in the grain/oilseed markets, led by net selling of 31.4k contracts in soybeans to extend their net short to 82.4k, followed by 28.9k contracts of net selling in SBO (net long 67.9k), 26.5k corn (net short 56.0k) and 24.7k SBM to move to a new record net short of 64.4k contracts. Funds were small net sellers in KCBT wheat of 1.1k contracts (net long 8.3k) and 1.1k MPLS wheat (net short 4.6k), with the only net buying by funds on the week being in CBOT wheat of 3.7k contracts, putting their net long at 52.2k contracts (record net long is 80.8k).
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for March-April shipment, with offers due by today. Algeria typically buys most of their wheat from France, but recently gave preliminary approval to Russian wheat following phytosanitary tests.
ï‚· Egypt extended the maximum allowable moisture limit of wheat imports of 13.5% for another year to April 2021 to allow for a wider competition of suppliers.
ï‚· SovEcon estimates Russia will export 1.7 MMT of wheat in February vs 1.918 MMT in January and 2.244 MMT last year February. If accurate, July-Feb marketing year to date exports of 24.4 MMT would compare to 29.4 MMT last year. Through December, wheat exports stood at 22.7 MMT vs 27.1 MMT last year.
Weather Argentina saw rains of .25-.75†fall across most northern Buenos Aries into southern sections of Santa Fe and Entre Rios Friday, with dry weather elsewhere over the weekend. Mostly dry conditions are expected this week with the next rains slated for later Thursday into Friday with .50-1†expected in northern sections of Santa Fe and Entre Rios, with totals of .20-.60†elsewhere. Another front is then indicated to bring rains of .50-1â€+ to most areas by Monday of next week, with some 1â€+ amounts for Corrientes. In Brazil, rains of .50-1.5â€+ fell across most areas north of Parana, with totals of .25-.75†in Parana and Santa Catarina. Areas from Parana south will be dry this week, while areas north of Parana see .50-1.5†over the next 5 days. Widespread .50-1.5†rains are seen across Brazil in the 6-10 day period.