-Census Bureau further revises (corrects) September soybean export data
-Ukraine corn crop continues to be lowered in late-season assessments
-Solid increase in 21/22 EU wheat production expected
-No USDA sales announcements
-Argentine rain event ideas ticked lowered
-Soybean/corn export sales solid, wheat as expected
 The Census Bureau issued further corrections to the September soybean trade data yesterday, bringing the total net reduction (correction) in reported exports for the month to 603k tonnes (22.2 million bushels) from the originally-reported exports for the month of 285.9 million, putting September exports now at roughly 264 million bushels. While still roughly 20 million bushels above Export Inspections for the month, it is a far cry from the 42 million bushel difference originally reported which provided a bullish shock to the market. It is clear there were multiple issues with the initial September data and further revisions would not surprise at this point. The 603k tonnes (22.2 mil bu) in total corrections so far were accounted for by 335k tonnes (12.3 mil bu) to China, 158k tonnes (5.8 mil bu) Egypt, 66k tonnes (2.4 mil bu) Pakistan and 45k tonnes (1.7 mil bu) Saudi Arabia. These revisions should be accounted for in the USDA’s working ideas of 2020/21 exports, but won’t be reflected in the Census Bureau’s official data reports until the 2020 annual revisions are released sometime in April.
 As late assessments of this year’s grain crops continue to be made, APK-Inform solidly further lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s corn crop to 29.0 MMT from 31.8 MMT previously, prompting a reduction in their 2020/21 export estimate to 23.0 MMT from 25.2 MMT previously. Their export estimate is now below USDA’s 24.0 MMT, while their production estimate is mostly in line with USDA’s 29.5 MMT. Last year, Ukraine’s corn crop was 35.9 MMT and exported 28.9 MMT.
 Strategie Grains issued their first estimates of the 2021/22 EU grain crops with a notable increase in soft wheat production anticipated to 129.6 MMT from this year’s 118.9 MMT and comparable to 2019/20 production of 131.0 MMT. A strong increase in likely production has been expected based on previous reports of planted area rising to 21.9 million hectares (54.1 mil acres) from the previous year’s excessive rainfall-reduced 20.6 mil hectares (50.9 mil acres). Next year’s EU corn crop was preliminarily estimated at 63.5 MMT vs 61.8 MMT last year and 64.5 MMT in 2019/20. A slight decline in EU barley production next year to 54.4 MMT from this year’s 55.7 MMT was estimated.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Indonesia sees 2021 crude palm oil production rising to 52.3 MMT from 49.1 MMT this year, allowing for an increase in exports to 21.4 MMT from this year’s 26.7 MMT. Total domestic consumption of palm oil is seen rising to 11.2 MMT from 10.8 MMT this year.
ï‚· Turkey lowered import tariffs on most grains, including corn and wheat, to zero through April 30, 2021 from 20% previously in place.
 NOTE: USDA will release next week’s Export Sales report on Wednesday morning, 12/23/20, as federal agencies will be closed 12/24-12/25 for Christmas. Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42405 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were 922k tonnes (33.9 million bushels), just above the range of market ideas of 400-900k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 20.9 million bushels and were the largest in four weeks. The largest sales for the week went to Mexico with 225k tonnes, with China being a net buyer of 136k tonnes for the week, but this week’s data reflected the switching of 791k tonnes in previously-reported “unknown” sales to China
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week were strong at 1.925 MMT (75.8 mil bu), above market expectations of 800k-1.6 MMT, up from the previous two weeks’ sales of 53.6 and 54.0 mil bu and were the 2nd highest of the last six weeks. China was a net buyer of 162k tonnes for the week with 11.3 MMT now on the books vs 60k tonnes a year ago.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week of 540k tonnes (19.9 mil bu) were in line with market expectations of 250-650k tonnes and comparable to sales over the last three weeks of 16.4-29.2 million bushels, but were below last year’s marketing year high sales this week of 31.9 million bushels. There were 68k tonnes in new sales to
China for the week (65k HRS, 3k HRW), ticking their total U.S. wheat purchases up to 2.1 MMT vs 200k tonnes a year ago.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales were solid at 261k tonnes, a six-week high and towards the upper end of market expectations of 150-350k tonnes. U.S. soybean oil sales were sluggish again last week at only 7.6k tonnes, at the bottom of expectations of 5-30k tonnes and continuing the hit or miss nature of sales this year.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .50-1†across most of Parana and the southern ½ of MGDS, Sao Paulo yesterday, with totals of .25-.75†in RGDS, Santa Catarina and northern Sao Paulo. There are no major changes in the forecast this morning. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ with coverage of around 95% in all of the Brazilian growing regions are expected in the next 5 days, with only western MGDS to see less than .50â€. In the 6-10 day period, 1-3†is expected in most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais,
with totals of .75-1.5â€+ in MGDS, Minas Gerais and Parana and generally less than .50†in Santa Catarina and RGDS.
Argentina looks to stay dry through late Friday, when a front is still expected to move through. Expected rainfall totals were ticked lower a bit, but still decent with .40-1†forecast with coverage of around 90%. The 6-10 day period still looks mostly dry.