-Brazil lowers soybean/corn production estimates
-Russia looks to stabilize domestic grain prices – export restrictions eyed
-USDA reports corn sales to Mexico
-Malaysian palm oil stocks slightly above expectations, but multi-year low
-USDA WASDE report today
USDA will release the monthly WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42291. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 CONAB tweaked their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop lower to 134.5 MMT from last month’s 135.0 MMT estimate (124.8 MMT last year), but remains above the USDA’s 133.0 MMT and the average trade estimate for today’s USDA report of 131.9 MMT. They put new crop soybean exports at 83.6 MMT, down from last month’s 85.0 MMT and below USDA’s 85.0 MMT, but still up modestly from 81.8 MMT this year. They lowered their total corn crop estimate to 102.6 MMT from 104.9 MMT last month and is solidly below the USDA’s 110.0 MMT and the average trade estimate for today’s USDA update of 108.8 MMT. CONAB’s update reflects a crop essentially unchanged from last year’s 102.5 MMT. The 1st corn crop is estimated at 24.2 MMT vs 26.5 MMT last month and 25.7 MMT last year, while the 2nd crop (safrinha) is estimated at 76.8 MMT, unchanged from last month and up modestly from 75.1 MMT last year.
 Brazilian ag consultant AgRural lowered their estimate of this year’s soybean crop to 131.6 MMT from 132.2 MMT previously.
 China left their 2020/21 corn, soybean and vegoil balance sheets completely unchanged in this month’s update, with corn imports still reflected at 7.0 MMT and soybean imports at 95.1 MMT. The balance sheets prepared by the ag ministry reflect this year’s corn crop at 264.7 MMT vs last year’s 260.8 MMT, while the National Bureau of Statistics update on the crop today maintained their estimate at 260.7 MMT, reflecting a crop unchanged from last year. Many market participants in China feel the government’s crop estimates are too high given the typhoons during the growing season, but official estimates have held steady.
 Following Vladimir Putin’s comments criticizing government officials and market participants over rising domestic food prices, which he deemed unacceptable in the current global climate, Russia’s Prime Minister said measures would be prepared to stabilize food prices, which most are taking as an indication of stronger government controls being put on grain exports. The wheat market reacted strongly overnight accordingly.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end November palm oil stocks only declined marginally to 1.565 MMT from 1.574 MMT in October and were above average market expectations of 1.539 MMT. While stocks were well below last year’s 2.255 MMT and the lowest since June 2017, they were still deemed a bit fundamentally bearish, coming in higher than expected. Nov palm oil production was 1.492 MMT, down sharply from 1.725 MMT in October and below average
market expectations of 1.548 MMT, as well as year ago Nov production of 1.538 MMT. The higher than expected stocks were prompted by a decline in exports to 1.303 MMT from 1.674 MMT in Oct an below expectations of 1.400 MMT, while an uptick in imports to 113k tonnes from 45k in Oct (73k expected) also contributed.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 344k tonnes of corn to Mexico this morning.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42335 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were 569k tonnes (20.9 million bushels), which were within market expectations of 400-800k tonnes, but certainly continuing to reflect the slowing of sales activity in recent weeks. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of only 233k tonnes (459k tonnes previously announced as unknown were switched to China), with their total commitments now at 30.4 MMT vs 9.8 MMT last year.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales of 1.362 MMT (53.6 mil bu) were within market expectations of 700k-1.5 MMT, essentially unchanged from last week’s 54.0 mil bu and, again, well above last year’s same-week sales of 34.4 mil bu. This week’s activity included net sales of 141k tonnes to China, as well as 422k tonnes to unknown.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales continue to impress with 617k tonnes (22.7 mil bu) sold last week, above market expectations of 200-550k tonnes and well above year ago sales this week of 8.2 mil bu, with sales over the last five weeks averaging 18.8 mil bu/week vs 13.8 mil/week during the same period last year. While it wasn’t enough to show up in the daily announcements, this week’s activity did include 68k tonnes in new sales to China.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales of 164k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes and held steady within the rather consistent range of sales over the last five weeks of 138-182k tonnes/week. Soybean oil sales of 8.4k tonnes were towards the bottom of market expectations of 5-30k tonnes, continuing the hit or miss nature of this year’s sales program which has featured either very strong sales or rather limited sales each week.
Weather
Rains of .30-.80†fell across most of Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais and Goias, with things mainly dry in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions yesterday. Tropical showers and thunderstorms will produce .50-1.5â€+ across most of their growing regions north of Parana in the next 5 days, with a front to bring similar totals from Parana south on Sunday and Monday. Coverage in all of their growing regions looks to be 85-90%. The 6-10 day period shows rains of 1-2†in most of Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo. In Minas Gerais look to be in the .30-.80†range and limited rains are seen for most of Mato Grosso and MGDS. This is a decrease for MGDS and Mato Grosso. Dry weather looks to dominate most of the Argentine growing regions through today and then a front will work through tomorrow and bring some light and scattered rains. Most totals look to be under .25†and coverage around 65%. The European then indicates a secondary front to bring rains of .40-1â€+ and coverage of around 90% late Saturday into Sunday. The GFS sees little in the way of rains with that second front. There is no bias towards which model will prove correct at this point. The 6-10 day outlook shows mainly dry conditions across most of the Argentine growing regions, with some rains up across northern Cordoba and into Corrientes.