-Stats Canada wheat crop estimate higher than expected/canola lower
-Indonesia revises palm oil export levy system prompting sharply higher taxes
-South American forecasts show continued rains
-Soybean exports sales disappointing/corn and wheat as expected
 Statistics Canada issued their final crop production estimates of the year this morning. They solidly raised the all wheat crop to 35.183 MMT from 34.145 MMT in October and was above average market expectations of 34.6 MMT (32.9-35.5 MMT range of ideas). This is their 2nd largest wheat crop on record, only below 2013/14’s 37.6 MMT. USDA last estimated the crop at 35.0 MMT, while last year’s crop was 32.8 MMT. The canola crop was lowered to 18.72 MMT from 19.39 MMT previously, coming in below average expectations of 19.3 MMT (18.8-19.8 MMT range of ideas), declining from last year’s 19.61 MMT and the lowest in five years. The oat crop was put at 4.58 MMT (4.5 MMT avg estimate, 4.1-5.0 MMT range) vs 4.50 MMT previously and last year’s 4.23 MMT.
 Indonesia is officially revising their palm oil export levy system, effective December 10, in order to better support the country’s ambitious biodiesel production/consumption goals. In yesterday’s comments we wrote about how the current levy system has resulted in funds used to subsidize the biodiesel industry falling considerably short of needs. The new system will result in an immediate significant increase in levies paid by exporting companies, making Indonesian palm oil substantially more expensive on the world market. The current system imposes a flat $55/tonne levy on crude palm oil exports regardless of price. The new system will keep the minimum levy at $55/tonne, but will rise $15/tonne for every $25/tonne increase in palm oil prices above the $670/tonne minimum reference price. Based on the reference price which will be effective December 10 of $870/tonne, the export levy will jump to $180/tonne.
 The Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees the country’s 2021 palm oil production rising modestly to 49.0 MMT from this year’s estimated 47.4 MMT, with exports seen rising to 36.0 MMT from an estimated 32.3 MMT this year. This would return exports back to 2019 levels of 36.2 MMT, when production was 47.2 MMT.
ï‚· China is expanding the management of the country’s grain reserves in drafting a law requiring local governments to build up reserves of grains and oils in areas with medium-large cities, broadening the system beyond the central government’s current state reserve stockpiles. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) saw the new law was created as “new situations and questions have risen regarding grains reserves security administration, posing severe challenges to China’s grains stockpile security.â€
 Russian wheat exports in December are estimated to be around 4.0 MMT by the ag exporting company Rusagrotrans, which would be down modestly from November estimated exports of 4.4 MMT, but sharply above year ago Dec exports of 2.65 MMT and would be the 2nd largest on record for the month, just short of 2017’s 4.21 MMT. If accurate, July-Dec marketing year to date exports of 24.5 MMT would compare to 21.1 MMT last year.
ï‚· The solid price gains posted in wheat yesterday were prompted by market talk of China kicking the tires for U.S. wheat supplies, once again. Accordingly, the market will be on the look out for any USDA sales announcements in the coming days. There were no sales announcements this morning.
 Census Bureau official October export data will be released tomorrow and will very likely garner more attention than is usually the case with this data following September numbers showing soybean exports substantially larger than indicated by Export Inspections data in a very unusual situation. As a refresher, Census showed September soybean exports at 286 million bushels vs Inspections data of roughly 244 million bushels. Will October data show a continuation of larger than expected exports or a correction from a potential anomaly in last month’s data?
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42274 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were disappointing and a new marketing year low at only 407k tonnes (15.0 million bushels), coming in at the very bottom of wide market expectations of 400k-1.15 MMT and followed last week’s sales of 28.0 million bushels and average sales of the prior three weeks of 51.3 mil bu/week. This week’s Chinese activity included 133k tonnes of cancellations and 396k tonnes of previously-reported unknown sales being switched to China, resulting in total new net sales for the week of only 214k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week of 1.371 MMT (54.0 mil bu) were within market expectations of 800k-1.6 MMT, but down solidly from the previous week’s very strong 83.6 MMT, while again being substantially above last year’s same-week sales of 21.5 million bushels. New sales to China of 155k tonnes were reported this week, bringing their total purchases to 11.2 MMT.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were 446k tonnes (16.4 mil bu), within market expectations of 250-700k tonnes, but slightly below average sales over the previous six weeks of 18.4 mil bu/week.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 164k tonnes were within expectations of 100-300k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 138k tonnes, but in line with average sales of the last three weeks of 155k/week. Soybean oil sales were disappointing at a mere 2.5k tonnes vs expectations for 8-40k tonnes, but total commitments of 390k tonnes are still up more than 17% from last year.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .50-1.5â€+ across most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, while 30-.80†was seen in the southern 1/3 of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, with other areas dry yesterday. Nearly all growing areas will see rains over the next five days with 1-3†expected in Santa Catarina and Parana and totals of .50-1.5â€+ and coverage of around 85-90% everywhere else. Only RGDS is likely to see limited rains. This is a similar forecast to previous ideas. The 6-10 day period shows 1-3†in most of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Goias, with totals in Parana, MGDS and Mato Grosso in the .50-1.5†and generally less than 50†in Santa Catarina and Parana. This is a decrease for Santa Catarina and RGDS. Widespread .50-1â€+ rains were seen just about all of the Argentine growing regions yesterday, while forecasts were calling for only Corrientes and northern Cordoba to see rains. Only La Pampa and the southern ½ of Buenos Aries were dry. Dry conditions are now expected for the next five days. Forecast models differ on the 6-10 day period with the GFS indicating a front to arrive by the end of next week and produce .50-1†amounts with widespread coverage, while the European turned to dry conditions holding on for the period. At this time, there is more confidence in the GFS’ call for widespread rains.