-CONAB raises Brazil soybean/corn crop estimates
-Record new crop Brazilian SBM/SBO production expected
-Russia to set wheat export quota for 1st half 2022
-Refiners amassing large biofuel liabilities on blending mandate gamble
Due to today’s Veterans Day holiday, this week’s Export Sales report will be released on Friday. Additionally, the CFTC’s weekly COT data will be delayed until Monday. NOTE: Due to travel schedules, there will not be a CBOT Morning Newsletter tomorrow morning.
 CONAB raised their estimate of this year’s expected soybean crop to 142.0 MT from 140.8 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 137.3 MMT. USDA is currently estimating the crop at 144.0 MMT, with last year’s reflected at 138.0 MMT. They also
tweaked new crop corn production ideas higher to 116.7 MMT from 116.3 MMT previously (87.0 MMT last year) and compares to USDA at 118.0 MMT/86.0 MMT. This year’s estimated wheat crop was bumped lower to 7.7 MMT from 8.2 MMT previously, but still up solidly from last year’s 6.2 MMT.
ï‚· Brazilian oilseed crushing association Abiove sees the coming soybean crop at 144.1 MMT, with higher potential depending on weather. With the expected record soybean crop, they see new crop soybean exports rising sharply to 92.1 MMT from 86.0 MMT this year (USDA 94.3/87.0 MMT) and crush at 48.0 MMT vs 46.5 MMT this year (USDA 47.7/46.8 MMT). With the increase in crush, Abiove sees new crop soybean meal production at a record 36.7 MMT (USDA 37.0 MMT/36.2 MMT old crop) and soybean oil production also a new record at 9.7 MMT (USDA 9.2 MMT/9.0 MMT old crop).
 The expected large and early Brazilian soybean crop is putting pressure on new crop export values with Safras & Mercado citing Feb shipment soybeans at Paranagua trading at +50 cent premiums vs year ago values of +125 given the delayed crop. New crop harvest is expected to begin in the first half of January vs last year when harvest didn’t reach 10% complete until midFebruary, with 10% average progress being late January.
ï‚· The Indonesian Palm Oil Association reported end September palm oil stocks were 3.65 MMT, up slightly from 3.43 MMT in
August and a 7-month high, but still well below last year’s Sept stocks of 5.34 MMT. September palm oil production of 4.57 MMT compared to 4.62 MMT in August and 5.19 MMT last year, while Sept exports of 2.89 MMT were down sharply from 4.27 MMT in August and comparable to last year’s 2.76 MMT.
 Russia’s ag minister confirmed they are planning to set a wheat export quota for the first half of 2022 to ensure adequate
domestic supply prior to the new crop harvest. The quota is expected to be determined by the end of December dependent on the level of cumulative exports at the time. The head of Russia’s grain exporters union expects the quota to be effective from mid-February through June.
 A newswire examination of some oil refiners’ financial statements shows some are betting the Biden Administration will roll back ethanol blending mandates in pressure from continued inflationary pressures as gasoline prices continue to rise. Refiners are essentially shorting RINs in not amassing potentially needed credits amid the expectation for the blending mandate to be reduced. Specifically, Monroe Energy reflected potential biofuel liabilities at $547 million at the end of the third quarter vs only $68 million a year ago, while PBF Energy’s $1.3 billion compares to $236 million a year ago and CVR Energy’s $442 million compares to $83 million a year ago. If blending mandates are not lowered, these obligations could eventually lead to extremely difficult financial conditions for the companies, they claim, resulting in layoffs and/or refinery closings.
 The US Climate Prediction Center’s updated La Nina guidance indicates expectations for La Nina conditions to continue through the North American winter (90% chance) with a 50% likelihood of continuance during March-May.