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-China says wheat stocks equal to 1 1/2 years of demand – pig crop reduction continues
-Trade estimate summary for November 9 USDA reports
-USDA reports routine soybean sales to Egypt
-Export Sales respectable

USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be released next Tuesday, November 9. Our pre-report commentary/analysis will be posted on Market Insights later today. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page. USDA’s 10-year early baseline balance sheet projections will be released tomorrow at 2 PM CT. We will post them to Market Insights when available.
 Chinese ag ministry officials said current state reserve wheat stocks are large enough to provided 1 ½ years of total Chinese wheat demand in comments attempting to assure the country’s people ample supplies are available following a rush by consumers to stock up on products after the commerce ministry advised the public earlier in the week to stock up on daily necessities prior to the winter in case of emergencies or supply chain issues. Additionally, they said the current breeding sow population is still 6% above “normal levels†signaling continued hog number reductions are encouraged and that overall hog populations may not return to “reasonable†levels until next year. At the end of August, though, the sow herd was 10% in excess, indicating reductions are clearly underway. Winter wheat planting remains slightly delayed overall following excessive wetness in areas, but is now 83% complete, notably making ground relative to average of 86% after significant delays were seen previously.
 Ukraine’s winter wheat crop is 90% planted, with 2/3 of the crop said to be in good/satisfactory condition, while 1/3 is dealing with drier than desired conditions resulting in slow/limited germination in areas.
ï‚· USDA reported 100k tonnes soybeans sold to Egypt for 2021/22 delivery this morning.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45684 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were 1.224 MMT (48.2 million bushels), within market expectations of 700k-1.4 MMT, up from the previous week’s disappointing 35.0 million bushels, and comparable to average sales over the prior four weeks of 44.0 million bushels. However, this week’s sales paled in comparison to last year’s massive 103 million bushel week, resulting in total commitments of 1.221 billion bushels
now falling nearly 7% below last year.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales of 1.864 MMT (68.5 million bushels) were toward the upper end of market expectations of 1.0-2.0 MMT, up from the previous week’s 43.5 million, modestly above last year’s 56.2 million and were the 2nd highest of the first nine weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year. That being said, they were still considerably below the 89 million bushels/week average weekly sales experienced during the first nine weeks of the marketing year last year.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales of 400k tonnes (14.7 million bushels) were within market expectations of 180-500k tonnes, up from the previous
week’s disappointing sales of 9.9 million bushels, but well below last year’s 21.9 million bushels, putting total commitments of 478 million bushels at an 8-week largest shortfall to last year’s 616 million bushels of 22.4%.
ï‚· U.S soybean meal sales of 227k tonnes were at the upper end of expectations of 100-250k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 162k tonnes, but below last year’s 331k tonnes this week. Soybean oil sales were routine at 11.2k tonnes, in line with expectations of 0-20k tonnes, but doing little to help the overall cause as total commitments remain down a massive 41% from last year.

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