-Attache sees Argentine corn/wheat production/exports below USDA
-USDA reports large corn sale to Mexico
-Corn/wheat export sales strong – soybeans as expected
 The USDA ag attaché in Argentina sees this year’s corn crop at 48.0 MMT vs USDA’s last official estimate of 50.0 MMT, down slightly from last year’s attaché-estimated 50.0 MMT (USDA 51.0 MMT). With the lower production, the attaché pegs new crop corn exports at 33.0 MMT vs USDA at 34.0 MMT and would be down from estimated current marketing year exports of 37.0 MMT (USDA 38.0 MMT). The attaché sees the Argentine wheat crop at 17.4 MMT, solidly below the USDA’s last estimate of 19.0 MMT and down from last year’s 19.3 MMT (USDA 19.8 MMT). Accordingly, new crop wheat exports are estimated at 11.2 MMT by the attaché, a 5-year low, vs USDA’s 13.0 MMT estimate and last year’s 13.1 MMT (USDA 13.5 MMT). Argentine grain exchanges last estimated the wheat crop at 16.8-17.0 MMT.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 1.433 MMT of corn to Mexico this morning, with 892k tonnes for 2020/21 and 541k tonnes of 2021/22 delivery. They also reported 140k tonnes of corn sold to unknown for 2020/21, as well.
ï‚· South Korea bought 264k tonnes of corn overnight, 134k U.S. at $251.50-$253.74/tonne c&f for Jan-Feb shipment and 130k tonnes optional-origin for late April arrival at $252.25-$253.90/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Tomorrow is first notice day for November soybeans. No deliveries are expected.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41930 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were 1.621 MMT (59.5 million bushel), within market expectations of 1.0-2.0 MMT, but down solidly from the previous week’s 81.8 million bushels and were easily a marketing year low through the first 8 weeks of 2020/21. This week’s activity included net sales to China of 569k tonnes, bringing their total commitments to 26.0 MMT vs 6.2 MMT on the books at this time last year. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.726 billion bushels continue to dwarf last year’s 704 million and easily remain record high for late October.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week were surprisingly high at 2.244 MMT (88.3 million bushels), a new marketing year high, well above market expectations of 700k-1.5 MMT and up from the previous week’s also-strong 72.1 million bushels. There were no meaningful sales reported to China specifically this week, but sales to unknown were 776k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were solid at 743k tonnes (27.3 million bushels), marginally topping the range of market expectations of 200-700k tonnes, rebounding sharply from the previous week’s poor sales of 13.5 million bushels and were the highest in 9 weeks.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales last week of 199k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-400k tonnes, while soybean oil sales of 6.0k tonnes were at the bottom of expectations of 5-40k.
Weather
Rains of .40-1â€+ fell across around 75% of Mato Grosso Do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goias and the northern ½ of Minas Gerais yesterday, with things mainly dry in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions. Argentina saw .20-.60†across the southern 1/3 of Cordoba/Santa Fe and into most of La Pampa and Buenos Aries. The Brazil forecast continues to indicate .75-1.5†for around 95% of areas north of Parana in the next 5 days with some 1.5â€+ totals also likely across MGDS, Goias and Minas Gerais. Some rains now look to fall in both Parana and Santa Catarina in the next 2-3 days. The 6-10 day sees rains of .75-1.5â€+ to fall in most of Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais, with just a few light and scattered showers elsewhere. The Argentine growing regions will see mainly dry weather occur for the next 5 days. The 6-10 day forecast is a bit mixed, with the GFS now indicating things to remain mainly dry, while the European sees a front to bring rains of .25-.85†by the middle of next week