-Brazil October soybean/corn export ideas raised – soybean exports already near USDA annual estimate
-USDA reports soybean sales to China
-Rains added to Argentine forecast, solid amounts in Brazil forecast
-EU soft wheat export ideas bumped higher
-NOPA crush report today
Reminder: Export Sales will be released tomorrow due to Monday’s Columbus Day holiday. The EIA’s weekly ethanol data will be out later this morning, as will NOPA’s monthly soybean crush report.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 261k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
 Strategie Grains raised their estimate of 2020/21 total EU soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations to 25.0 MMT from 23.0 MMT previously due to more competitiveness for EU supplies given the sharp rally in Black Sea values of late. Last year’s exports were record large at 35.6 MMT following the massive crop. Strategie Grains lowered their estimate of the EU corn crop to 62.7 MMT from 64.9 MMT previously and compares to last year’s crop of 64.5 MMT.
 Brazil’s National Grains Exporter Association (ANEC) raised their estimate of the country’s corn exports in October to 5.237 MMT from 4.568 MMT previously and compares to 6.6 MMT in September and 6.0 MMT last year October. Based on the update, marketing year to date exports of 22.9 MMT compare to 29.0 MMT last year and would leave 11.0 MMT to export over the remaining Nov-Feb period of the old crop marketing year using the USDA’s 34.0 MMT annual export estimate vs last year’s 10.7 MMT for the period. ANEC bumped their October soybean export estimate up to 2.341 MMT from 1.911 MMT previously, putting estimated marketing year to date exports at 80.1 MMT vs 63.8 MMT last year. Exports have nearly reached the USDA’s 81.0 MMT annual projection with 3 months remaining in the marketing year. Last year during Nov-Jan, Brazil exported 9.6 MMT of soybeans.
 Ideas of Algeria’s recent wheat tender purchase were raised to 600k tonnes from preliminary ideas of 510k tonnes and is all
expected to be for Nov shipment from Baltic Sea/EU sources.
ï‚· Another South Korean feed mill bought 60k tonnes of Brazilian corn for Nov-Dec shipment at $251.82/tonne c&f.
 NOPA’s monthly soybean crush data will be released today at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of September soybean crush by NOPA members is 160.8 million bushels (155.2-167.0 million range of ideas), down from 165.1 million in August, but solidly above last year’s 152.6 million bushels and would match the record for the month set in 2018. End September soybean oil stocks among NOPA members are estimated at 1.412 billion pounds (1.250-1.525 billion range), down from 1.519 billion pounds in August, slightly below last year’s 1.442 billion and would be the lowest for the month in three years.
Weather
Yesterday saw rains of .25-.75†fell across around 60% of the Brazilian growing regions to the north of Parana, with .30-1â€+ from Parana south, as well. In Argentina, rains of .20-.60†fell in Santa Fe, Cordoba, Entre Rios and Corrientes. Brazilian looks to see tropical, hit and miss, rains in the near term, resulting in totals of .40-1â€+ in all but the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, where things will be mainly dry. The 6-10 day sees fairly widespread rains of .35-1†to fall with some areas of 1â€+ in areas north of Parana. Rains from Parana south look to be generally under .25†with coverage of around 55%. The Argentine forecast has increased amounts and coverage from earlier ideas with .40-1†of 85-90% coverage now expected in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period sees additional rains of .50-1â€+ to fall with coverage of around 85-90%.