-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT
-USDA Oilseeds Crushings report tomorrow
-China leaves official low tariff rate grain import quotas unchanged for 2022
-Strong Malaysian palm oil exports rally futures market
-USDA pledges funds to combat ASF in Dominican Republic
-Export Sales generally uninspiring
-No USDA sales announcements this morning
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Annual Summary report will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45273. A summary of the average trade estimates is the last page.
 Tomorrow afternoon, at 2 PM CT, the USDA will release the monthly Oilseeds Crushings report providing data for August. The average trade estimate of August U.S. soybean crush is 169.0 million bushels (168.0-170.0 million range of ideas) vs 166.4 million in July and 174.7 million bushels last year. The average estimate reflects nationwide crush 6.4% larger than NOPA-member crush, a bit below July’s abnormally high 7.3% difference, but above the 6.0% average difference during Feb-June. If accurate, August crush in line with the average estimate would put 2020/21 total crush at 2.141 billion bushels vs the USDA’s current estimate of 2.140 billion. The average estimate of end August U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.128 billion pounds (2.090-
2.200 billion range of ideas) vs 2.070 billion in July and 1.945 billion pounds last year. The average estimate reflects nationwide stocks 27.6% above NOPA member stocks, below July’s 28.1% difference and reflects what would be the lowest percent difference between the two in five months. Over he previous four months, nationwide SBO stocks averaged 30.3% above NOPA (3 of the 4 months ~28.2%) indicating the potential for stocks to come in a bit higher than the average estimate.
 China set the official low tariff rate import quotas for corn, wheat and rice for 2022 at the same levels as this year at 7.2 MMT for corn, 9.636 MMT for wheat and 5.32 MMT for rice. While those may be the official quota levels, as we’ve seen over the last year, China can and does extend additional import quotas to allow for a higher amount of low tariff imports if needed/desired.
 Malaysian palm oil/product exports in September were up sharply, estimated at 1.63-1.70 MMT by two different cargo surveyors vs 1.22 MMT in August, but were comparable to last year’s Sept exports of 1.63 MMT. Nonetheless, palm oil exports were the highest in nine months and were a contributing factor to the strength in palm oil futures overnight, with new contract highs again being posted in the benchmark Dec contract.
ï‚· The USDA pledged $500 million in assistance to the Dominican Republic and Haiti to contain and help prevent the spread of African swine fever.
ï‚· Tunisia tendered for 125k tonnes of soft wheat and 100k tonnes of barley for Nov-Dec shipment.
ï‚· Today was first notice day for October deliveries. There were only 89 contracts of soybean oil put out vs wire service-reported expectations of 0-500 contracts, while there were no soybean meal deliveries today vs ideas of 0-100 contracts.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45330 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.ï‚· U.S. corn sales were only 370k tonnes (14.6 million bushels), below market expectations of 400-900k tonnes, little-changed from the previous week’s 14.7 million bushels and massively below last year’s same-week sales of 79.8 million bushels. Even more discouraging is the fact total commitments for 2021/22 of 997 million bushels are now up less than 3% last year’s 969 million after previously running at a record pace and significantly above year ago levels ahead of the start of the new marketing year.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week of 1.094 MMT (40.2 mil bu) were within market expectations of 700k-1.2 MMT, up a bit from the previous week’s 33.2 illion bushels, but slightly below average sales during the first three weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year of 44.6 million bushels. Year ago sales this week were huge at 99.5 million bushels as sales during the first 7 weeks of 2020/21 averaged a massive 98.1 million bushels/week.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were weak at only 290k tonnes (10.7 mil bu), near the bottom of market expectations of 250-550k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 13.0 million bushels and the lowest in five weeks.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales were within expectations with old crop sales at 67k tonnes (0-100k expected) and new crop sales at 163k tonnes (50-250k tonnes expected). Soybean oil sales remain minimal with 6k tonnes in old crop sales (-5k to +10k expected), while some new crop sales finally showed up with 22k tonnes sold last week vs 0-20k expected