-Surging canola continues to support soybeans/SBO
-Russian wheat crop ideas lowered
-US corn/soybean conditions stabilize but still waiting for widespread improvements
-Large French wheat crop/export ideas
Soybeans and soybean oil were higher overnight, following the continued surging canola market and notable gains in palm oil. The focus on Canada’s struggling canola crop should remain supportive for soybeans/SBO price and demand-wise. Mostly non-threatening conditions are forecast for most U.S. corn areas through pollination, with many areas well-watered for now and silking at 26% nationally (50% IL/21% IA).
 Sovecon lowered their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 82.3 MMT from 84.6 MMT previously citing lower than expected yields as harvest is underway. Yesterday, USDA ticked their estimate of the crop down to 85.0 MMT from 86.0 MMT previously vs last year’s 85.4 MMT. They bumped their estimate of the corn crop up to 15.9 MMT from 15.75 MMT previously and compares to USDA’s 15.4 MMT (4.9 MMT last month/13.9 MMT last year).
 Preliminary trade data showed China imported 10.72 MMT of soybeans in June, up from 9.61 MMT in May, but below last year’s 11.16 MMT, bringing 20/21 marketing year (Oct-Jun) imports to 74.8 MMT vs 69.0 MMT last year and 2021 calendar year-to-date imports to 49.0 MMT vs 45.0 MMT last year. While below year ago imports, June imports were the 3rd highest monthly total on record. Some expect slowing import demand in the coming months with crush margins in Shandong province negative since mid-June and hog prices remaining under considerable pressure. Preliminary data also showed corn imports in June were roughly 3.6 MMT vs 3.2 MMT in May and 900k tonnes last year, bringing Oct-June marketing year to date imports to 19.9 MMT vs 4.6 MMT last year.
 Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn conditions improving 1% in good/excellent to 65% from last week, in line with market expectations but still below last year’s 69% g/e in mid-July. The 5% decline in IL was unexpected, but IA was up 4%, MN up 1%, SD up 7% and WI up 2%. Overall conditions are now in line with the 10-year average, but still a bit below the 5-year average. Soybean conditions were unchanged at 59% g/e vs expectations for a 1% increase and remain solidly below last year’s 68% g/e. As in corn, IL soybean conditions declined by 7% last week, while IA was up 6%, SD up 4%, ND up 2%, MN up 1% and WI up 2%. Overall soybean conditions remain the 2nd worst of the last 9 years for mid-July.
ï‚· Spring wheat conditions held steady at a horrendous 16% g/e (68% last year) and remain the 2nd lowest on record. Winter wheat harvest is now 59% complete vs 66% last year and 65% average.
 See our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44511 for full details of yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress update.
 France’s first official ideas of the 2021/22 soft wheat balance sheet indicated expectations for production of 37.1 MMT vs last year’s 29.2 MMT, allowing for soft wheat exports of 17.8 MMT vs 13.5 MMT last year. Of the 17.8 MMT, 10.5 MMT is expected to be to non-EU destinations (7.5 MMT last year), with 7.3 MMT within the EU (6.0 MMT last year). The soft wheat crop estimate reflects an 11.2% increase from the most-recent 5-year average. Barley production was estimated at 11.3 MMT vs 10.4 MMT last year, while rapeseed production was pegged at 3.0 MMT vs 3.3 MMT last year.
ï‚· Turkey bought 395k tonnes of wheat, fulfilling their tender, priced from $253.88-$265.40/tonne c&f for LH Aug shipment, with most expected to be Black Sea (Ukrainian) origin.