-Brazil further lowers corn crop/maintains soybean crop/sees record wheat crop
-Rain ideas remain solid for most of the corn belt
-USDA reports new crop SBM sold to Mexico
-Trade estimate summary for Monday’s USDA reports
Due to Monday’s holiday, the EIA’s weekly ethanol/petroleum data will be out later this morning, with Export Sales being released tomorrow. CFTC Commitments of Traders data will still be out Friday afternoon, as usual. USDA’s monthly WASDE and Crop Production reports will be released Monday, July 12. A summary of the trade estimates is on the last page.
The GFS increased rain ideas across IA, IL, IN, OH, WI and MI in the near term and extended timeframes, with rain ideas not
absent, but definitely more limited for MN and the Dakotas. Rain amounts/coverage over the last 24 hours were a bit scattered, favoring S WI, central IL , the northern ½ of IN and OH and all of MI.
 CONAB lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn crop to 67.0 MMT from 70.0 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 75.1 MMT, resulting in the total crop estimate declining to 93.4 MMT from 96.4 MMT last month and down from last year’s 102.6 MMT. The ongoing reduction in Brazil’s corn crop ideas, both official and private, leave the USDA looking behind the curve on their updates as they were last at 98.5 MMT, with many private ideas near/below 90 MMT. The average trade estimate for Monday’s USDA update is 91.8 MMT. CONAB left their estimate of this year’s corn exports unchanged from last month at 29.5 MMT, but down from last year’s 35.1 MMT, while USDA was last at 33.0 MMT. CONAB sees this year’s corn imports at 2.3 MMT vs 1.6 MMT last year, while USDA is at 3.5 MMT. CONAB left their estimate of the soybean crop unchanged at 135.9 MMT (USDA 137.0 MMT/128.5 MMT last year), with exports estimated at 86.9 MMT (86.7 MMT last month) and USDA at 87.5 MMT and last year’s 81.6 MMT. CONAB put this year’s wheat crop at 8.5 MMT, easily a new record in surpassing 2016/17’s 6.7 MMT and compares to 6.2 MMT last year (USDA 6.8 MMT).
 Brazilian oilseed association Abiove sees this year’s soybean exports at a record 86.7 MMT, up from their previous estimate of 85.7 MMT, comparable to CONAB’s expectations and up from last year’s 81.6 MMT. They see this year’s soybean crush at 46.5 MMT, comparable to USDA’s 46.8 MMT and up modestly from last year’s 46.0 MMT. They see the potential for crush to decline 800k tones if Brazil maintains the currently-reduced 10% biodiesel blend mandate, which was reduced from the previous 13% guideline due to high biodiesel costs.
ï‚· Saudi Arabia tendered for 360k tonnes of wheat for October arrival, with offers due by July 12. In their last tender May 31, they bought 562k tonnes of wheat, believed to largely be Baltic region/Black Sea origin.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 122k tonnes of soybean meal to Mexico for 2021/22 delivery this morning.