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-Grains lower on continued heavy rain forecasts
-Russian wheat crop ideas raised again
-USDA Hogs and Pigs report today, Cattle on Feed tomorrow
-Export Sales uneventful except for SBM

No major change in the weather forecast with widespread, heavy rains expected across at least the eastern 2/3 of corn belt over the next 7-10 days. No concerning heat is in the forecast for the majority of the belt into early July , as well.
 Sovecon solidly raised their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 84.6 from 82.4 MMT previously, now expected to be only slightly below last year’s 85.9 MMT. The current wheat crop outlook represents a vastly improved situation from the start of the spring growing season when Sovecon estimated the crop at only 76.2 MMT in February. USDA is currently at 86.0 MMT. Russia’s winter wheat harvest is just getting underway.
ï‚· The Malaysian Palm Oil Board said they expect palm oil futures to mostly hold a 3,500-3,800 ringgit/tonne ($840-$913) range over the next three months (benchmark Sept currently at 3,421 ringgit/tonne ($822), with palm oil production expected to tick higher in the coming months but limited by COVID-impacted labor shortages. The recent price break is expected to prompt an increase in exports during July-August.
 The EU Commission slightly lowered their estimate of the EU-27 soft wheat crop to 125.8 MMT from 126.2 MMT previously, but still up solidly from last year’s 117.2 MMT, while the corn crop was bumped down to 70.6 MMT from 71.0 MMT last month. New crop corn imports are expected to be unchanged from this year’s 15.0 MMT. Wheat exports outside the EU this year are expected to be 30.0 MMT vs 27.0 MMT last year.
ï‚· Friday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average trade estimate of Cattle on Feed as of June 1 is 100.5% of last year (99.0-101.2 range of ideas) and follows May 104.7, which was positively influenced by the year-over-year comparison to the detrimental COVID impact a year ago. May placements are estimated at 95.4 (93.0-99.4 range) vs 127.2 in April (COVID comparison), while May marketings are estimated at 123.4 (121.6-126.0 range) vs 132.8 in April (COVID comparison).
 This afternoon at 2:00 PM CT, USDA will release the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The average estimate of all hogs and pigs as of June 1 is 97.7% of last year (96.5-99.0 range of ideas) and follows the previous quarter’s 98.2% as of March 1. The average estimate of kept for breeding is 98.9 (98.2-100.0 range), while kept for market is estimated at 97.6 (96.3-99.1 range).
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44327 details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
 U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 6/17/21, were limited at only 216k tonnes (8.5 million bushels), but were within market expectations of 0-400k tonnes and, more importantly, were a bit above the roughly 4.7 million bushels/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. New crop sales were 311k tonnes (12.2 mil bu), within expectations of 200-500k tonnes and puts 21/22 total commitments at 617 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 143 mil bu. There was no reported new crop activity by China for the week.
ï‚· Old crop soybean sales last week were 142k tonnes (5.2 mil bu), limited in the big picture but still at the upper end of market expectations of -100k to +175k tonnes and again easily meeting the roughly 1.5 mil bu/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. New crop sales were minimal at only 47k tonnes (1.7 mil bu) and well below market expectations of 200-800k tonnes
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales were routine at 374k tonnes (13.7 mil bu), in line with expectations of 200-525k tonnes and maintaining the rather uneventful start to the new crop with sales of 10.5-13.7 mil bu/week in the first three weeks of 21/22.
ï‚· Old crop soybean meal sales were impressive at 388k tonnes, a 22-week high and above market expectations of 125-300k tonnes. On the opposite end of the spectrum, soybean oil sales remain abysmal with only 2.4k tonnes sold last week (-4k to +25k expected) and have averaged a mere 1.0k tonnes/week over the last 7 weeks.

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