-Corn sales limited but within expectations and “needed” pace
-Soybean sales limited but at upper end of expectations – new crop sales disappointing
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM sales strong/SBO sales minimal again
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 6/17/21, were limited at only 216k tonnes (8.5 million bushels), but were within market expectations of 0-400k tonnes and, more importantly, were a bit above the roughly 4.7 million bushels/week average we estimate is needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export projection. Over the last three weeks, corn sales averaged 5.6 million bushels/week. While the headline shows China leading the way with a 180k tonne increase in total commitments for the week, 132k tonnes was switched from unknown and 70k tonnes was switched from South Korea, leaving the net impact on total sales being a net decline of 22k tonnes. Today’s update shows China still has 6.5 MMT in unshipped corn purchases on the books, which we expect to be fully shipped by the end of the marketing year as their loadings remain extremely active, averaging 866k tonnes/week over the last 6 weeks. Total commitments of 2.738 billion bushels compare to 1.642 billion last year. New crop sales were 311k tonnes (12.2 mil bu), within expectations of 200-500k tonnes and puts 21/22 total commitments at 617 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 143 mil bu. There was no reported new crop activity by China for the week.
Old crop soybean sales last week were 142k tonnes (5.2 mil bu), limited in the big picture but still at the upper end of market expectations of -100k to +175k tonnes and again easily meeting the roughly 1.5 mil bu/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. While this week’s sales were an 8-week high, highlighting just how limited sales have been of late, they have still averaged 3.0 mil bu/week over the period, consistently maintaining a pace to support the USDA’s projection. This week’s activity included a net increase of 66k tonnes of old crop purchases by China and a 66k tonne decrease in new crop, impossible to know if it was an intentional shift in purchases or fixing a previous clerical error. China officially has 752k tonnes of old crop unshipped sales still on the books but has shipped only 8k tonnes/week on average over the last 7 weeks. Total commitments of 2.269 billion bushels compare to 1.638 billion last year. New crop sales were minimal at only 47k tonnes (1.7 mil bu), well below market expectations of 200-800k tonnes and bring 21/22 total commitments to 280 mil bu vs 224 million last year. While better than year ago sales at this time, there has been little excitement for new crop sales activity so far.
U.S. wheat sales were routine at 374k tonnes (13.7 mil bu), in line with expectations of 200-525k tonnes and maintaining the rather uneventful start to the new crop with sales of 10.5-13.7 mil bu/week in the first three weeks of 21/22. While mostly keeping up with the 12.8 mil bu/week average we estimate is needed based on the USDA’s 900 mil bu export projection, sales have been below last year’s 15.7 mil bu/week average of the first three weeks. Total commitments of 227 million bushels are down 10% from last year in the early going, with USDA currently estimating a 9% decline in wheat exports this year.
Old crop soybean meal sales were impressive at 388k tonnes, a 22-week high and above market expectations of 125-300k tonnes. The SBM export program continues to impress, averaging 218k tonnes/week over the last 6 weeks, easily outpacing the 76k tonnes/week needed to reach the USDA’s current export projection, as it appears another increase in their estimate may be forthcoming. On the opposite end of the spectrum, soybean oil sales remain abysmal with only 2.4k tonnes sold last week (-4k to +25k expected) and have averaged a mere 1.0k tonnes/week over the last 7 weeks, well below the quite minimal 5.1k/week average needed based on the USDA’s current export projection. Accordingly, another slight/modest reduction in the USDA’s export estimate may be needed at some point.
