-Improving weather outlook hammers grain markets
-India pulls plans to lower vegoil import duties
-Export Sales weak overall – except SBM
-Ukraine corn crop ideas ticked higher
Decent rains were seen across western Iowa over the last 24 hours, with current radar showing scattered, but decent, rains continuing to move across the state. The 7-day outlook still indicates widespread good rains for IA, S. MN and essentially all of WI, IL, IN and OH. The European model finally came on board adding considerable rains in the 6-10 day period relative to previous expectations, as well. Markets are under significant pressure this morning with a non-threatening/improving longer-term weather outlook in place and SBO continuing to get hammered with expanded trading limits in place following yesterday’s limit down move.
ï‚· Lawmakers from several ag states sent a letter to the EPA urging them to not make any moves that would detrimental impact biofuel blending obligations, as reportedly has been recommended to the White House recently by lawmakers from energy states, as the debate will, undoubtedly, continue indefinitely between the two sides.
 APK-Inform marginally lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s wheat crop to 27.3 MMT from 27.6 MMT previously (USDA 29.5 MMT/25.4 MMT last year) but maintained their estimate of 2021/22 wheat exports at 19.75 MMT (USDA 20.5 MMT/17.0 MMT last year). Conversely, they slightly raised expectations for this year’s corn crop to 36.2 MMT from 35.7 MMT previously (USDA 37.5 MMT/30.3 MMT last year). They now see the rapeseed crop at 2.46 MMT vs 2.51 MMT previously and compares to 2.62 MMT last year, while new crop exports are estimated at 2.2 MMT vs 2.4 MMT old crop.
 The Argentine Ag Secretary estimates farmers have now sold 21.8 MMT of soybeans from this year’s crop, with sales maintaining a steady pace of 853k tonnes sold in the latest week, while overall sales remain behind last year’s 25.3 MMT at this time. Corn sales remain strong, with 30.2 MMT sold so far, up roughly 500k tonnes for the week, and compare to 27.2 MMT a year ago.
ï‚· With global vegoil prices under pressure, India decided not to move ahead with its planned cuts on import duties, which were seen initially as a way to cool domestic prices as India relies on imports for roughly 2/3 of all edible oil needs. The imports duties of 32.5% on palm oil and 35% on soybean oil will remain in place. There was also concern reducing import duties would send the wrong signal to domestic oilseed producers given the impact it would have had on lowering imported supply values.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 135k tonnes of old crop soybean meal to the Philippines this morning.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44250 details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn old crop sales were minimal at only 18k tonnes (0.7 million bushels), towards the bottom of market expectations of -100k to +400k tonnes, and were the 2nd lowest of 2020/21 marketing year behind only the net cancellations reported in the first week of May. New crop sales were limited, as well, at 276k tonnes (10.9 mil bu) vs expectations of 100-500k tonnes, with no new activity by China.
 Old crop soybean sales remain minimal with 65k tonnes (2.4 mil bu) sold last week vs expectations of -100 to +200k tonnes, but at least were net positive and kept up with the limited 1.8 million/week in sales we estimate is “needed.†New crop sales were minimal at 6.5k tonnes (0.2 mil bu) and included net cancellations by China of 43k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were modest at 287k tonnes (10.5 million bushels), towards the lower end of market expectations of 200-500k tonnes, with 2021/22 total commitments at 213 million bushels vs 233 million at this time last year.
 Soybean meal sales were respectable, the only one of the group, at 177k tonnes, within expectations of 100-300k tonnes and again outpacing the roughly 96k tonnes/week average we estimate is “needed.†Soybean oil sales were minimal again at only 2.2k tonnes vs expectations of 0-25k, with sales over the last six weeks averaging an abysmal 0.7k tonnes/week.