-Stats Can grain stocks report trade estimates
-Argentine farmer soybean sales remain slow/corn sales ahead of last year
-Indian veg oil imports seen declining in near term
-Export Sales minimal
-Brazil corn crop ideas continue to get trimmed
The forecast for Brazilian safrinha corn areas remains mostly dry through the 10-day period, although the GFS added some rains in the 11-15 day period (see table on page 2).
ï‚· Tomorrow morning, Statistics Canada will release their quarterly grain stocks report, providing data for stocks as of March 31. The average trade estimate of Canadian wheat stocks as of March 31, 2021 is 16.7 MMT (15.2-19.6 MMT range of ideas) vs 18.781 MMT last year, with the durum wheat component of that at 2.6 MMT (1.9-3.1 MMT range) vs 3.305 MMT last year. March 31 canola stocks are estimated at 6.7 MMT (6.1-7.2 MMT range) vs 10.554 MMT last year, while March 31 oat stocks are estimated at 1.9 MMT (1.7-2.3 MMT range) vs 1.846 MMT last year. Barley stocks are estimated at 3.3 MMT (2.7-4.6 MMT range) vs 3.531 MMT last year.
 Brazilian ag consultant Datagro lowered their estimate of the country’s corn crop to 105.5 MMT from 109.3 MMT, while their soybean crop estimated was raised to 136.3 MMT from 135.5 MMT previously. USDA was last at 109.0 MMT (102.0 MMT last year) and 136.0 MMT (128.5 MMT last year), respectively, while many private estimates of the corn crop have moved down towards 100 MMT, or lower.
 Brazilian ag exporter association Anec maintained their estimate of marketing year total corn exports at 32.0 MMT despite the drought conditions impacting the safrinha crop in some locations, but would still be down modestly from their reference of last year’s exports of 33.6 MMT (35.1 MMT according to official trade data). They cited favorable conditions in Mato Grosso, which accounts for around 45% of total production, and the strong export logistical capabilities of the state for holding export ideas steady at this time. They see annual soybean exports at 83.0 MMT vs last year’s official trade data exports of 81.6 MMT and just short of the 2018/19 record of 83.7 MMT.
ï‚· Argentine farmer sales of soybeans remain tepid with 16.4 MMT reportedly sold so far vs 20.8 MMT at this time last year, according to the Ag Minister, but decent activity was seen over the last week as 869k tonnes were sold by farmers. Farmer sales of corn, on the other hand, of 24.5 MMT are above year ago sales at this time of 23.65 MMT.
ï‚· Amid the massive surge of COVID-19 cases in India, edible oil refiners have sharply reduced expected imports for May and June given the social restrictions in place causing demand at restaurants, hotels, etc. to decline. Currently, ideas for May and June palm oil imports are around 650k tonnes, down from previous ideas of 850k tonnes, but soybean import ideas, for now, are holding steady at around 300k tonnes/month. Under normal conditions, India consumes around 1.9 MMT of edible oil monthly, with palm oil accounting for roughly 2/3 of the total.
ï‚· South Korea tendered for 276k tonnes of corn for July-Aug shipment periods.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43794 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were minimal at 137k tonnes (5.4 million bushels), down from the previous three weeks’ average of 16.2 million bushels, below market expectations of 200-900k tonnes and just above marketing year low sales of 4.5 million bushels in late February.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week of 165k tonnes (6.1 mil bu) were within market expectations for net cancellations of 100k to net positive sales of 200k tonnes, with any level of net positive sales being fundamentally supportive at this time. Weekly activity included the net reduction in sales to China of 10k tonnes, while sales to unknown were +136k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. wheat old crop sales last week were net cancellations of 96k tonnes (-3.5 mil bu), below market expectations 0-250k tonnes and followed last week’s sales of 8.5 million bushels, while sales have averaged 2.9 million bushels/week over the last five weeks. New crop sales of 400k tonnes (14.7 mil bu) were within expectations of 100-500k tonnes with 2021/22 total commitments now at 110 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 78 million.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales of 202k tonnes were within expectations of 50-300k tonnes and, again, more than met the roughly 114k tonnes in average weekly “needed” sales to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales of 6.1k tonnes were also within expectations of -10 to +25k tonnes, but were, again, well below the roughly 17k tonnes/week average “needed.â€
Weather
NOTE: We have added weather model-estimated precip summary tables to our daily comments. The tables summarize the GFS and European model’s estimated precip by region and by period, along with the change in estimated precip from the forecast 24 hours prior. The U.S. table below compiles estimated state-average precip forecasts into regional averages: WCB (NE, MN, IA, MO), ECB (IL, IN, OH, WI), S. Plains (KS, OK, TX), N. Plains (ND, SD). On the following page, tables including precip estimates by state, as well as Brazilian safrinha corn areas and Ukraine production areas are also available.
Precip activity over the last 24 hours in the corn belt included .25-.75†with 10% coverage, mainly S. MN and S. WI. The Central/Southern Plains saw .25â€-.75†rains in south central KS and central OK, while SE ND and NE SD saw .10-.30â€