-Ukraine corn/wheat crop ideas remain strong
-Romania expecting large wheat crop
-EU lowers wheat crop, but still up solidly from last year
-Argentine farmer soybean selling remains slow
-First notice day for May delivery tomorrow – no price limits
-Export Sales widely above “needed” pace – except SBO
-Precip estimate tables added to daily comments
 Ukraine’s grain traders’ union, UGA, sees new crop wheat production at 27.7 MMT, below the government’s official estimate of 29.5 MMT, but still up sharply from last year’s USDA-estimated 25.5 MMT. Accordingly, UGA sees new crop wheat exports potentially rising to 21.0 MMT from this year’s 17.5 MMT. They see the corn crop at 35.5 MMT vs the government’s official estimate of 33.2 MMT and last year’s 29.5 MMT (USDA), with export potential at 30.0 MMT vs this year’s 24.0 MMT. UGA sees new crop Ukrainian rapeseed production at 2.5 MMT vs 2.55 MMT last year and exports at 2.25 MMT vs 2.4 MMT this year. A modest increase in expected soybean production to 3.11 MMT from last year’s 2.75 MMT could allow for an increase in exports to 1.6 MMT from this year’s 1.35 MMT.
 Favorable weather and higher planted area are leading to strong ideas on this year’s Romanian wheat crop, with production seen anywhere from 8.5-10.0 MMT, up sharply from last year’s drought-impacted 6.4 MMT. With the increase, ideas on new crop export potential range from 5.5 MMT all the way up to 7.0 MMT vs this year’s estimated exports around 3.5 MMT based on annual domestic needs of 2.5-3.0 MMT. The strong crop expectations supported Romania’s lowest offers in Egypt’s latest wheat tender.
 The EU Commission lowered their estimate of 2021/22 EU-27 common wheat production to 124.8 MMT from 126.7 MMT previously, but would still be up solidly from last year’s 117.2 MMT. However, the balance sheet allowed for new crop export ideas outside the EU to remain unchanged this month at 30.0 MMT and up from this year’s 27.0 MMT. EU estimated corn production of 71.3 MMT was virtually unchanged from last month’s 71.2 MMT estimate, but up solidly from last year’s 65.0 MMT, with new crop imports lowered to 16.0 MMT from 16.5 MMT previously, but would be unchanged from this year. The Commission sees new crop rapeseed production at 16.5 MMT vs 16.7 MMT last month and 16.3 MMT last year.
ï‚· Argentine farmers are estimated to have sold 15.53 MMT of new crop soybeans vs sales of 20.26 MMT at this time last year. Farmer corn sales are estimated at 22.63 MMT vs 22.93 MMT last year.
 South Africa raised their estimate of this year’s corn crop to 16.1 MMT from 15.9 MMT previously, and is up from last year’s 15.3 MMT, but was slightly below average expectations of 16.3 MMT.
ï‚· The Argentine government extended a contract for dredging of the Parana River for another 90 days, ensuring continued vessel navigation for unabated export operations. The current contract was set to expire at the end of April, raising some concerns of reduced loading capacity requirements.
ï‚· The CME further raised May corn and wheat futures maintenance margins to $1900/contract ($1700 previously) and $2300/contract ($2100 previously), respectively.
ï‚· South Korean corn buying continues with at least 200k tonnes bought overnight with 63k tonnes for LH June priced at $318.48/tonne c&f and 133k priced at $302.93-$305.73/tonne c&f for Sept-Oct shipment.
ï‚· Algeria is believed to have bought 200-360k tonnes of optional origin wheat (likely Germany, Poland, Baltic region) for June shipment, with prices around $316.50/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Tomorrow is first notice day for May deliveries. For the most part, no deliveries are expected. Reminder, there are now no limits on May contracts.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43741 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· Old crop soybean sales of 293k tonnes (10.7 million bushels) were above market expectations for net cancellations of 100k tonnes to sales of 200k tonnes, were a 7-week high and, most importantly, above the roughly 3.8 million bushels/week we estimate is needed through the end of August based on the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. China was a buyer of 68k tonnes of old crop soybeans last week.
ï‚· Old crop corn sales of 521k tonnes (20.5 mil bu) were within market expectations of 400k-1.0 MMT, but with total commitments already at 2.666 billion bushels vs the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection, any level of positive sales further indicates the USDA’s estimate is too low.
ï‚· Old crop wheat sales of 224k tonnes (8.2 mil bu) were within expectations of 0-300k tonnes and better than the roughly 3.1 million bushels/week we estimate is needed over the final five full weeks of 2020/21 to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales of 164k tonnes were within expectations of 50-250k tonnes and have averaged 132k tonnes/week over the last six weeks, keeping up with the USDA’s export projection which will require sales to average roughly 118k tonnes/week through the end of September. Soybean oil sales were minimal at 3.6k tonnes vs expectations of -10k to +50k tonnes, with sales over the last three weeks averaging 2.6k tonnes/week vs average “needed” sales of roughly 16k tonnes/week.
Weather
NOTE: We have added weather model-estimated precip summary tables to our daily comments. The tables summarize the GFS and European model’s estimated precip by region and by period, along with the change in estimated precip from the forecast 24 hours prior. The U.S. table below compiles estimated state-average precip forecasts into regional averages: WCB (NE, MN, IA, MO), ECB (IL, IN, OH, WI), S. Plains (KS, OK, TX), N. Plains (ND, SD). On the following page, tables including precip estimates by state, as well as Brazilian safrinha corn areas and Ukraine production areas are also available.
Precip activity over the last 24 hours included .50-1.75†with 35% coverage (nearly all of MO, IL, IN, lighter in OH) with the southern Plains seeing .50â€-2.5†with the heaviest amounts in the E. ½ of OK and central TX, with decent amounts in far E. KS.