-Argentine corn crop ideas raised/soybeans steady
-Russian wheat crop ideas bumped lower
-China buys new crop French wheat
-Good rains expected across corn belt next week
-Export Sales shows net reductions in China soybean/corn purchases
 The Rosario Grain Exchange further raised their estimate of the Argentine corn crop to 50.0 MMT from 48.5 MMT previously and is now solidly above USDA’s last estimate of 47.0 MMT and down only marginally from last year’s 51.0 MMT. The exchange cited a larger than expected planted area for corn and strong yields in Cordoba for the upward revision as the large portion of the crop which was planted late benefitted from the late-season rains. Recent satellite analysis showed total planted area of corn was up 1.5% from last year, while soybean planted area ideas were bumped lower by 300k hectares (740k acres). Despite the slight lowering of soybean area ideas, the exchange left their estimate of the soybean crop unchanged at 45.0 MMT, but remains solidly below last year’s 47.5 MMT and last year’s 48.8 MMT.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates Argentina will plant 6.5 million hectares (16.1 mil acres) of wheat when new crop planting begins next month, which would be unchanged from this year’s crop area.
ï‚· China is believed to have bought 500k-1.0 MMT tonnes of new crop French wheat for July-Sept shipment, in their first confirmed purchases of the coming crop. China has shipped 1.6 MMT of French wheat so far this marketing year (July-June).
 IKAR lowered their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 79.5 MMT from 81.0 MMT previously and compares to USDA estimate of last year’s crop of 85.4 MMT. They estimated roughly 700k hectares of winter wheat area will need to be replanted after assessing the crop post-winter dormancy.
ï‚· Ethiopia received only one offer in its tender for 400k tonnes of milling wheat ($313/tonne c&f) and two offers in the separate tender for 30k tonnes.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43659 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were minimal at 64k tonnes (2.4 million bushels), but were within market expectations of -100k to +250k tonnes while continuing the string of minimal sales over the last five weeks in particular, averaging a mere 1.4 million bushels/week during the period. This week’s activity again included net cancellations by China of 51k tonnes, bringing their outstanding (unshipped) sales on the books down to 714k tonnes. We see soybean sales needing to average roughly 4.0 million bushels/week through the end of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s export projection.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week of 388k tonnes (15.3 million bushels) were at the bottom of market expectations of 300-800k tonnes, but much more importantly, continue to run stronger than “needed” based on the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection. In fact, we see sales on the books already being enough to reach the USDA’s projection when taking into account the difference between Export Sales data and official Census Bureau export data. There were net reductions in sales to China for the week of 124k tonnes (switched to S. Korea and Taiwan).
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week of 240k tonnes (8.8 mil bu) were slightly above market expectations of 0-200k tonnes and put 2020/21 total commitments at 932 million bushels vs 936 million a year ago. Over the last four weeks, old crop wheat sales averaged 4.8 millionbushels/week, in line with our estimated “needed” pace. New crop sales of 374k tonnes (13.7 mil bu) were modest but within expectations of 200-500k tonnes and included 65k tonnes to China.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 124k tonnes were within expectations of 50-225k tonnes, while keeping pace with average “needed” sales. Soybean oil sales were minimal at 5.7k tonnes, technically within expectations of -5 to +20k tonnes, but reflected the 3rd out of the last 4 weeks (9 of last 12 weeks) in which sales were below the average “needed” pace.
Weather
Precip activity over the last 24 hours included .10-.40†of roughly 10% of the corn belt (far east), while the central/southern plains were dry. The coming 5-day period is expected to bring .50-1.25†amounts and 35% corn belt coverage, with the 6-10 day outlook showing considerable rains across the belt and Delta with 1-2†amounts widespread from IA/MN through to western OH. The eastern halves of KS, OK and TX are also on tap for good rains in the period. Heavy rains of 2-4†across the Delta appear possible/likely, but also includes the southern ½ of MO, as well.