-CONAB bumps Brazilian soybean/corn crops higher
-Feb ethanol exports to China minimal
-Export Sales show net soybean cancellations by China
-ENSO neutral conditions expected during U.S. summer
-USDA report tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43468. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 CONAB ticked their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop higher to 135.5 MMT(USDA 134.0) from 135.1 MMT previously and 124.8 MMT last year, with new crop exports estimated at 85.6 MMT (USDA 85.1 MMT/81.6 MMT last year). CONAB raised their estimate of the total corn crop to 109.0 MMT from 108.1 MMT previously (USDA 109.0/102.0 MMT last year) due to the 1st crop proving a bit better than expected at 24.5 MMT vs 23.5MMT previously and 25.7 MMT last year. The safrinha crop was estimated at 82.6 MMT (82.8 MMT previously) and would be up sharply from last year’s 75.1 MMT. They held their new crop corn export estimate steady at 35.0 MMT and compares to USDA last at 39.0 MMT and 35.5 MMT last year.
 Yesterday’s release of February Census Bureau trade data showed only 4.7 million gallons of ethanol exported to China in the month, down sharply from 22.7 million in January and 12.5 million gallons in December. Exports to Brazil were also down to 7.8 million gallons from 17.5 million in January. Total ethanol exports in February of 101.7 million gallons were down sharply from 164.6 million in January and were a 5-month low. Last year, U.S. ethanol exports in February were 194.2 million gallons. Official trade data for February for soybeans, corn and wheat was uneventful/expected relative to Export Inspections data.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 97k tonnes of U.S. wheat for June shipment in a routine purchase. HRW was priced at $262.81/tonne fob, while DNS was priced at $285.04/tonne fob. Freight was priced at an average of roughly $45/tonne from the PNW.
ï‚· The U.S. Climate Prediction Center sees an 80% likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions during May-July as the shifting out of La Nina continues.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43502 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were net cancellations of 93k tonnes (3.4 million bushels) vs market expectations for sales of 100-400k tonnes, with China canceling 216k tonnes and the largest sales of the week being a mere 32k tonnes to Japan.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales of 757k tonnes (29.8 mil bu) were within market expectations of 500-900k tonnes, pushing total commitments to 2.617 billion bushels and further ahead of the USDA’s current 2.600 billion bushel export projection which clearly is in need of a solid upward revision in tomorrow’s WASDE report.
ï‚· Old crop wheat sales of 82k tonnes (3.0 mil bu) were below expectations of 100-500k tonnes and were a marketing year low, which isn’t surprising as 2020/21 winds down. New crop sales were solid at 530k tonnes (19.5 mil bu) vs expectations of 50-200k, with China buying 260k tonnes (195k white, 65k HRW).
ï‚· Soybean meal sales of 128k tonnes were at the lower end of market expectations of 100-250k tonnes, but still met the roughly 118k tonnes/week in sales we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales were respectable at 15.7k tonnes, within expectations of 0-30k and the 2nd best of the last 10 weeks.
Weather
Rains of .30-.80†fell across north central and northeast KS, as well as far eastern OK and TX yesterday. An additional .50-1†is expected in northeast KS as well as the eastern 1/3 of OK and TX in the next 2-3 days, with totals of generally less than .35†in the rest of KS. For the 6-10 day period, the European sees .50-1.25†across the southern ½ of OK and most of TX, with generally less than .35†elsewhere, while the GFS has .75-1.5â€+ in all but the TX and OK panhandles, where totals of generally less than .50†are indicated.
The Argentine forecast is unchanged with 1-2†widespread rains expected over the 5-day forecast, with mostly dry conditions in the 6-10 day period. In Brazil, .75-1.5â€+ is expected in Mato Grosso over the next 5 days.