-USDA announces more corn sales to China
-China seeking ways to reduce corn/SBM in feed rations
-Argentine rain ideas pulled back
-Ukraine wheat prices under pressure
-Export Sales generally decent
China’s ag ministry has directed nutrition experts and other government offices to outline a plan for ways to reduce the corn and soybean meal content in animal feed and replace with other products. Guidelines are sought by the end of the month, with the bureau set to review and approve the new plans by April 10. The potential impact on corn and SBM demand, though, is quite uncertain given the dramatic difference in available other products vs corn and SBM, along with the fact any guidelines/recommendations would not be binding at the livestock operation level.
ï‚· China imported a combined 4.8 MMT of corn during Jan-Feb vs year ago imports of 930k tonnes during the 2-month period, while wheat imports of 2.48 MMT during Jan-Feb compared to 680k tonnes last year. Two month total imports for barley were 1.32 MMT vs 740k tonnes last year and sorghum 1.40 MMT vs 300k tonnes last year. All together, China imported 10.0 MMT of grain during Jan-Feb vs 4.4 MMT last year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 696k tonnes of corn to China this morning, bringing the 3-day total to 3.1 MMT and total official purchases so far this year to roughly 22.4 MMT and likely closer to 25 MMT taking into accounts sales on the books to unknown.
 Argentina’s ag ministry said farmers have sold an estimated 11.9 MMT of new crop soybean production so far, representing roughly 26% of the expected crop, while estimated corn sales of 19.1 MMT so far account for roughly 42% of the expected crop.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil futures were down solidly overnight and have decline 5.5% over the last three sessions.
ï‚· APK-Inform said Ukrainian wheat export prices have declined $10/tonne this week alone as improving new crop prospects, weak EU wheat values and waning old crop export demand weigh on prices.
 Strategie Grains left their estimate of the 21/22 EU soft wheat crop unchanged at 129.6 MMT, reflecting a solid increase from last year’s 119.3 MMT, while they ticked their new crop corn ideas higher to 65.0 MMT from 64.6 MMT previously and up from last year’s 62.5 MMT. They also lowered their estimate of current year 2020/21 EU soft wheat exports by 900k tonnes to 25.2 MMT due to a decline in Chinese buying of French wheat late, which is said to be running less than previously expected. The export cut prompted an increase in their 2020/21 EU soft wheat ending stocks ideas by 1.0 MMT to 11.3 MMT.
ï‚· Russia is reportedly considering raising the export tax on sunflower seeds, rapeseed, soybeans and flaxseed to 50% from the current 30% as of July 1, with the minimum tax to set at 320 euros/tonne (~$382) vs 165 euros/tonne (~$197) currently.
ï‚· China has now approved 741 companies in Kazakhstan to be eligible to export ag products to China, adding 195 allowed producers since the start of the year.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43291 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales of 202k tonnes (7.4 million bushels) were within market expectations of 0-400k tonnes and compared to year ago sales this week of 27.2 million bushels and the most-recent 3-week average sales of 7.9 million bushels/week. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of a minimal 5.5k tonnes (66k tonnes switched from unknown).
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week were 986k tonnes (38.8 mil bu), above market expectations of 300-750k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 15.6 mil bu and were a 4-week high. New sales to China for the week were minimal at 13k tonnes, but there was a notable switch of 612k tonnes of prior “unknown” sales to China.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales of 390k tonnes (14.3 mil bu) were within market expectations of 150-500k tonnes, comparable to last week’s 12.1 mil bu, but better than the most-recent 4-week average of 10.3 mil bu.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales remain solid with 235k tonnes sold last week, within expectations of 100-300k tonnes, above the roughly 121k tonnes/week “needed” to reach the USDA’s export projection and slightly better than the most-recent 3-week average of 203k tonnes. Soybean oil sales finally showed some signs of life at 19.1k tonnes, the highest in 7 weeks and much-improved from the minimal 3.7k/week average over the previous five weeks.
Weather
Argentina is expected to see rains of .75-1.5â€+ in far northeast Buenos Aries, the northern ½ of Santa Fe and all of Entre Rios/Corrientes, with totals elsewhere generally less than .25†over the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period now shows .50-1.5â€+ in most of Entre Rios, Santa Fe and Corrientes by the second half of next week, with mainly dry conditions in Buenos Aries and La Pampa, a drier forecast for Buenos Aries and La Pampa than was in yesterday’s ideas.
Low pressure brought rains of .35-1†to the TX and OK panhandles, as well as southwest KS, with totals of .75-1.5â€+ in the eastern ½ of KS, northeast OK yesterday. By Monday into Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of next week, back to back areas of low pressure will bring rains of .75-1.5â€+ to the western ½ of KS, most of OK, TX, as well as all of the Midwest, except possibly eastern OH.