-Brazil raises soybean/corn crop estimates
-Argentine soybean crop ideas lowered
-Chinese ASF concerns rising
-Ukraine/Russian winter crops in good shape
 CONAB raised their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 135.1 MMT from 133.8 MMT last month and compares to USDA at 134.0 MMT and last year’s 124.8 MMT (128.5 MMT USDA). The also raised their estimate of total corn production to 108.1 MMT from 105.5 MMT previously and compares to USDA at 109.0 MMT and last year’s 102.5 MMT (102.0 MMT USDA). The 1st crop (currently being harvested) was left essentially unchanged at 23.5 MMT vs 23.6 MMT last month (25.7 MMT last year), while the safrinha crop (being planted) was raised to 82.8 MMT from 80.1 MMT last month (75.1 MMT last year).
 Brazil is expected to offer increased incentives to farmers to increase next year’s summer corn crop (the first crop) such as more credit, crop insurance and trade support mechanisms given the decline in 1st crop production in recent years, which has resulted in periods of very limited domestic supplies and the need to import at times until the safrinha crop is harvested. The current non-Mercosur country import tariff exemption in place until March 31 is not expected to be extended.
 Safras & Mercado estimated Brazil’s corn crop at 113.5 MMT vs their reflection of last year’s crop of 106.8 MMT. They expect total domestic corn consumption to set a record 77.4 MMT in the new marketing year vs USDA’s current estimate of 70.0 MMT, although we would caution we have no reference for the comparison of Safras’ reflection of domestic usage ideas vs USDA estimates historically. USDA put last year’s domestic corn usage at 68.5 MMT. Safras also sees Brazil possibly importing some corn from Paraguay in the coming months, which has become common in recent years given the reduced 1st crop production. Brazil has imported around 1.5 MMT of corn in each of the last two years.
 The Rosario Grains Exchange notably lowered their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop to 45.0 MMT from 49.0 MMT previously amid the ongoing dryness in some locations, with additional reductions possible. The Buenos Aires exchanged held their estimate at 46.0 MMT last week, but warned of potential reductions, as well. USDA last estimated the crop at 47.5 MMT, while last year’s crop was 48.8 MMT according to USDA.
ï‚· South Korean feedmills were active corn buyers overnight of at least 321k tonnes, with 261k tonnes being optional-origin and 60k being U.S. The U.S. portion was priced at $300.00/tonne c&f for June 20 arrival, while the optional sales were priced from $287.40-$290.99/tonne c&f for May-July shipment periods.
ï‚· Dalian soybean meal futures were under heavy pressure overnight on continuing African swine fever concerns with some analysts estimating the total sow herd has declined by 10% since the end of 2020. China has officially reported only six new cases of ASF in 2021, with four being in March alone, but the cases have been geographically widespread across the country, raising concern the issue could be/likely is larger than official indicate.
 Ukraine’s state weather agency said most regions are seeing optimal soil moisture levels heading into the spring planting season with active early crop planting expected to begin March 17-25. Winter crops are also seen in good condition and likely to continue to improve during the early growing season. This year’s wheat crop could rise to 29.5 MMT from 25.1 MMT last year, with exports of 22.0 MMT possible vs this year’s 17.5 MMT according to government ideas.
ï‚· Around 80% of Russian winter crops are currently in good condition according to the ag ministry and expected to continue to improve amid currently favorable conditions.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for April 15-25 shipment. The six lowest offers were all Romanian at $297.60-$302.61/tonne c&f, with Russian next at $304.92 and Ukrainian at $305.48.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43220 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were reported at 351k tonnes (12.9 million bushels), putting them at the top end of muted market expectations of 200-350k tonnes (7.3-12.9 mil bu), but once again, a downward revision in last week’s sales to 9.8 million bushels from 12.3 million initially reported artificially inflated this week’s sales.
Over the last three weeks, soybean sales have totaled 23.8 million bushels (7.9 million/week average).
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week of 396k tonnes (15.6 mil bu) were at the very bottom of market expectations of 400-750k tonnes, rebounding from the previous week’s atrocious 4.5 million bushels, but massively below last year’s same-week sales of 58.0 million bushels. Over the last three weeks, corn sales have averaged only 12.6 million bushels/week but are still above the roughly 8.6 million/week sales need to average based on the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales of 330k tonnes (12.1 million bushels) were at the upper end of market expectations of 150-350k tonnes and were the best in three weeks, while also being above the roughly 6.2 million bushels/week “needed” based on the USDA’s export projection.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 262k tonnes were above market expectations of 100-250k tonnes as, at least in the export arena, SBM continues to be the star performer in terms of the products. Over the last six weeks, SBM sales have averaged a very impressive 249k tonnes/week. On the other hand, soybean oil sales were only 4.9k tonnes again last week, at the bottom of expectations of 5-20k, the 5th consecutive week of sales of 5.5k tonnes or less.
Weather
The near term Argentine outlook turned mixed with the GFS keeping things mainly dry over the next five days, while the European indicates rains of .50-1â€+ to fall with coverage or around 85%. The models remain at odds for the 6-10 day period, as well, with the GFS holding onto fairly dry conditions in most areas with rains of 1-2†in the far west, while the European now sees rains of 1-2†to fall in all areas