-Argentine crop ideas solidly raised following rains
-Argentina assures no export tax hikes/export restrictions
-Brazil corn crop raised, soybeans maintained
-CPC sees end of La Nina
-Export Sales solid, except for SBO
 CONAB tweaked their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop higher to 133.8 MMT from 133.7 MMT previously and compares to USDA at 133.0 MMT and the USDA’s reflection of last year’s crop of 126.0 MMT, while CONAB has last year’s crop at 124.8 MMT. CONAB solidly raised their estimate of the total corn crop, though, to 105.5 MMT from 102.3 MMT previously, but is still below USDA’s 109.0 MMT and compares to last year’s 102.0 MMT USDA/102.5 MMT CONAB. The increase in the corn crop was due entirely to higher safrinha crop ideas, raised to 80.1 MMT from 76.8 MMT last month, while the 1st crop was left virtually unchanged at 23.6 MMT vs 23.9 MMT last month. The new estimates reflect a solid increase in the safrinha crop from last year’s 75.1 MMT, while the 1st crop would be down from last year’s 25.7 MMT. CONAB raised their estimate of safrinha corn area resulting in the higher estimate this month. CONAB now sees new crop soybean exports at 85.6 MMT, little-changed from last month’s 85.7 MMT estimate and compares to USDA at 85.1 MMT/81.6 MMT last year. CONAB sees
new crop corn exports at 35.0 MMT, unchanged from last month and well below USDA’s 39.0 MMT estimate (35.5 MMT old crop).
 The Rosario Grains Exchange solidly raised their Argentine soybean and corn crop estimates as a result of the abundant rains in recent weeks providing the crops with a “turning point†in avoiding a 2018-type disaster with strong crops now expected. Specifically, they raised the soybean crop to 49.0 MMT from 47.0 MMT
previously (USDA 48.0 MMT/48.8 MMT last year) and corn to 48.5 MMT from 46.0 MMT previously (USDA 47.5 MMT/51.0 MMT last year).
ï‚· A meeting between Argentine government officials, including the president, and farmer associations ended with assurances Argentina will not further raise export taxes or take actions to limit ag exports moving forward.
 Strategie Grains raised their estimate of 2020/21 EU wheat exports to 26.1 MMT from 25.1 MMT last month, expecting a modest impact from anticipated lower Russian exports as a result of their new export tax scheme. The USDA is currently estimating EU wheat export at 27.0 MMT (38.4 MMT last year). The group lowered their estimate of EU corn imports to 16.1 MMT from 16.7 MMT previously and compares to USDA at 15.5 MMT (18.6 MMT last year). They maintained their favorable new crop EU soft wheat crop ideas at 129.6 MMT vs last year’s 119.2 MMT crop.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
ï‚· The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said they see a 60% chance for the current La Nina conditions to transition to neutral during the April-June timeframe.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42933 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 2/04/21, were solid again at 805k tonnes (29.6 million bushels), beating market expectations of 300-750k tonnes and were little-changed from the previous week’s 30.2 million bushels. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of 329k tonnes. However, USDA said 296k tonnes were late reported, meaning they were not made within this week’s reporting period, occurring at some earlier point in time. Without the late-reported sales, actual new sales to China for the week were only 33k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week of 1.449 MMT (57.0 million bushel) were within market expectations of 800k-1.4 MMT, obviously declining from the previous week’s record sales of 293 million bushels, but continuing the rather solid pace of late which averaged 62.0 million bushels/week over the three weeks prior to last week’s massive sales.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were respectable at 591k tonnes (21.7 mil bu), beating market expectations of 200-450k tonnes and followed the previous week’s solid sales of 23.6 million bushels.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 264k tonnes were within market expectations of 150-350k tonnes but, more importantly, continue to run solidly better than the average “needed” pace of 145k tonnes in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales last week were minor net cancellations of 0.5k tonnes as there was essentially no sales activity for the week whatsoever.
Weather
Brazil saw .35-.85â€+ across most of RGDS yesterday, with .20-.60†in MGDS and 65% of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais. Conditions were dry elsewhere. The 1-5 day period shows 1-2†across the majority of the Brazilian growing regions from the southern ½ of MGDS and Sao Paulo south, while totals were raised to 2-3â€+ for all other areas for the period. The 6-10 day outlook shows 2-4†to the north of Parana, with little in the way of rains to the south. In Argentina, .20-.60â€+ fell across Corrientes yesterday, with the rest of the country dry. Rains of .50-1.5†are expected in most of Buenos Aries, Entre Rios, as well as most of Corrientes in the 5-day outlook, with this morning’s guidance adding most of Santa Fe to the rain area, as well. La Pampa and Cordoba still look to be mainly dry in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period looks mostly dry.