-Argentine farmer selling picks up on government action concerns
-USDA reports multiple daily sales
-China reports first ASF case in nearly three months
-Cattle on Feed report Friday
NOTE: The EIA’s weekly energy-related data (ethanol, crude oil, gasoline demand, nat gas stocks, etc.) will be released on Friday as a result of Monday’s holiday and the inauguration. Export Sales are also delayed until Friday, as well. CFTC COT data will still be released on Friday, as usual.
ï‚· Argentine farmers have reportedly sharply increased cash corn sales of late, comfortable with current crop prospects and
concerned about possible future moves by the government to limit exports. The ag ministry said farmers sold 1.1 MMT of new
crop corn to exporters during the Jan 7-13 period vs 334k tonnes during the same period last year and only 104k tonnes in the
last week of December.
ï‚· USDA reported sales of 337k tonnes of corn to unknown, 163k tonnes of soybeans to Mexico, 136k tonnes of soybeans to China and 138k tonnes of HRW wheat to Nigeria this morning. All was for 2020/21 delivery, except for the wheat being new crop.
ï‚· China reported the first new cases of African swine fever in nearly three months on a farm of 1,015 pigs in the southern province of Guangdong. Illegal transportation was cited as the likely cause.
ï‚· A wire service poll of palm oil industry participants showed expectations for benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures to average 2,800 ringgit/tonne (~$695) in 2021 vs 2,685 ringgit/tonne (~$640), and would be the highest in nine years even with an expected rebound in global palm oil production. The survey indicated average expectations for 2021 Indonesian palm oil
production at 48.3 MMT, up slightly from last year’s 47.7 MMT, with Malaysian production seen at 19.6 MMT vs 19.14 MMT in Separately, Malaysia said they officially estimate 2021 palm oil production being 19.7 MMT.
ï‚· Algeria ended up buying an estimated 390k tonnes of wheat following their recent tender, with around half expected to be
French origin, along with some being northern EU and possibly even a bit South American. Prices paid were between $312.50-
$314.00/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Friday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of cattle on feed as of January 1 is 99.4% of last year (98.8-100.0 range of ideas, 11.886 million head) vs 100.0 as of Dec 1. December placements are estimated at 97.0 (93.0-100.0 range, 1.773 mil head) vs 91.1 in November, while December marketings are estimated at 100.6 (100.0-101.8 range, 1.845 mil head) vs 98.3 in November.
Weather
Brazil saw .50-1â€+ rains across most of Santa Catarina, Parana and MGDS yesterday, with spotty showers in Mato Grosso. No major changes in the forecast with rains expected to remain concentrated across Santa Catarina, Parana, MGDS, Mato Grosso and northern RGDS in the next 5 days, bringing totals of of 1-3â€+ and widespread coverage. Amounts of generally less than .35†will fall in Sao Paulo, Goias and Minas Gerais. Widespread 1-2†amounts are expected in the 6-10 day period.
Argentina is expected to be mostly dry over the next five days, with rains of .60-1.25†still indicated for most growing regions by the middle of next week.