-Multiple states seeking 2020 biofuel blending waivers
-Argentine crop estimates ticked lower
-Malaysia to delay B20 roll-out
-EU wheat crop ideas ticked lower
-Egypt tenders for wheat, US cheapest flat price but loses due to freight
-South Korea buys South American corn for July-Aug
 The Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop to 50.5 MMT from 51.5 MMT previously and compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 52.0 MMT, while their corn crop estimate was ticked down to 49.8 MMT from 50.0 MMT previously and USDA’s 50.0 MMT. Last year’s crops were 55.3 MMT and 51.0 MMT, respectively.
ï‚· The governors of TX, OK, WY, UT and LA sent letters to President Trump requesting exemption from 2020 biofuel blending mandates given the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. With gasoline demand bludgeoned, there is simply no way to meet the 15 billion gallon RFS blending mandate for ethanol. ï‚· The Malaysian Biodiesel Association said the nationwide roll-out of the B20 blending mandate, which began in January, will be delayed due to coronavirus. It was expected to be fully implemented by June 2021. The resumption of B20 roll-outs will be a moving target as the situation/conditions warrant.
 Strategie Grains lowered their estimate of the 2020/21 EU soft wheat crop to 135.0 MMT from 136.7 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 146.4 MMT crop (127.1 MMT in 2018/19), while early ideas on the corn crop were left unchanged at 67.3 MMT, up from last year’s 63.7 MMT. Due to lower domestic usage expectations due to impacts of coronavirus, they raised 2019/20 EU soft wheat ending stocks ideas sharply to 13.7 MMT from 12.5 MMT previously, with similar stocks expectations for 2020/21 despite the lower crop as new crop demand ideas were lowered, as well.
 The USDA ag attaché in Uruguay sees this year’s soybean crop (Jan 20-Dec 20 marketing year) at 10.8 MMT, solidly above the USDA’s official view of 9.9 MMT, allowing for exports of 6.7 MMT vs USDA’s 5.9 MMT estimate and rising sharply from last year’s 4.9 MMT. Very early ideas on next year’s crop (Jan 21-Dec 21) indicate an expected increase in area of 7-8% from this year’s reduced level, but a backing off in yields to average levels from this year’s strong performance would put production at 10.3 MMT and exports pulling back to 6.2 MMT. However, as area is expected to increase, favorable weather could easily push production and export estimates higher. New crop planting gets underway in October.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for May 21-June 5 shipment. The lowest offer on an fob basis was actually U.S. HRW at $236.95/tonne. However, French wheat was offered at $239.86 and easily beats U.S. with the freight advantage. Another cargo of French was offered at $243.65, with three Russian cargoes at 44.86-$248.70/tonne. Specifically, U.S. HRW ended up being the highest priced in the offer at $260.80/tonne c&f, with
French lowest at $251.86 and Russian at $254.30-$259.05/tonne c&f. ï‚· Ukraine wheat export prices hit a marketing year high this week with 12.5% protein Black Sea wheat at $227-$232/tonne fob as near term export demand remains strong, while prospects remain for the government to curb exports if needed prior to the end of the campaign in June.
ï‚· South Korea bought 206k tonnes of expected South American corn at $180.74-$181.95/tonne c&f for July-August shipment periods.
ï‚· Bunge said Brazilian grain export operations are normal despite the coronavirus pandemic.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39791 details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were 907k tonnes (35.4 million bushels), falling within market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, but declining solidly from sales of the previous three weeks of 72.8 million, 42.3 million and 71.4 million bushels. More importantly, though, they were again above the roughly 16.2 million bushels/week sales need to average in order to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week of 245k tonnes (9.0 million bushels) were below market expectations of 300-600k tonnes, were down from the previous week’s 19.2 million bushels, were below last year’s same-week sales of 16.3 million bushels and were a new marketing year low.
ï‚· Old crop U.S. wheat sales last week were 178k tonnes (6.6 million bushels), at the low end of market expectations of 150-350k tonnes and down from the previous week’s 9.5 million and last year’s same-week sales of 11.7 million. New crop sales were 420k tonnes (15.4 million bushels), a bit above expectations of 100-300k tonnes and puts 2020/21 commitments at 62 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 60 million.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 159k tonnes were within expectations of 100-250k tonnes, as were soybean oil sales of 21.2k tonnes relative to expectations of 8-35k tonnes. Both exceeded their average weekly “needed” sales paces.
Weather
Today/tomorrow is expected to bring couple of inches of snow to southern IA, far northern MO, northern IL, IN and OH, with rains of .30-.80â€+ in the rest of MO, IL,
IN and OH. Most of the corn belt looks to be dry through the weekend. The 6-10 day shows conditions to be fairly quiet through early next week, with a system to
bring rains of .50-1â€+ to most areas south of I-80, with little to no precip in areas to the north. Temps will run below average for most of the next week to ten days.