-NOPA crush report tomorrow expected to show lower Oct crush than last year
-EU wheat export ideas raised again
-Argentine wheat crop ideas lowered again, corn area ideas moving lower too
-USDA reports soybean sales to China confirming previous ideas
-Favorable rains in Argentine forecast
-China lifts long-time import ban on US poultry
EIA weekly ethanol data will be out today, with Export Sales being released tomorrow morning.
 NOPA will release its monthly soybean crush report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate of October soybean crush by NOPA members is 166.8 million bushels, with a wide range of ideas of 157.5-173.0 million. The average estimate reflects an increase from Sept NOPA crush of 152.6 million, but is down 3.2% from last year’s 172.3 million bushels, which was not only the record for October, but also the all-time monthly record NOPA crush, as well. Sept NOPA crush was down 5.1% from last year. The average estimate of end October soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.420 billion pounds (1.329-1.500 billion range of ideas), which would be down from 1.442 billion pounds in September despite the expected solid increase in crush for the month. Despite the seasonal increase in soybean crush in October, a decline in soybean oil stocks in October has been a common occurrence of late, being seen in each of the last three years.
ï‚· Indian vegoil refiners made their first purchases of Malaysian palm oil in over a month as the price discount to Indonesian supplies finally spurred some purchases, which were halted on concerns the Indian government could raise import taxes or place other limitations on imports from Malaysia amid the Kashmir dispute. It is believed around 70k tonnes of Malaysian palm oil was bought for December shipment at roughly $5/tonne discounts to Indonesian palm oil. Malaysian palm oil futures traded higher overnight on the reports of the sales.
 Strategie Grains solidly raised their estimate of 2019/20 EU soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations to 28.8 MMT from 27.3 MMT previously, reflecting continued upward revisions in recent months from their early ideas back in July of just 21.9 MMT and now estimating a 7.8 MMT increase from last year’s 21.0 MMT.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 129k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
 The Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 19.0 MMT from 20.0 MMT previously, following the recent pattern of declining estimates. USDA lowered their estimate to 20.0 MMT from 20.5 MMT previously in the November 8 WASDE report. Last year’s crop was 19.5 MMT based on USDA estimates. The exchange said the wheat harvest is 9% complete. The exchange also lowered their ideas on this year’s corn planted area, now reflecting an expected 3% year-over-year decline after early favorable expectations for as much as a 6% increase. USDA is currently estimating Argentine corn area unchanged from last year. The exchange put corn planting progress at 43%, which would be in line with average, but behind last year’s historically fast pace of 54%.
ï‚· China officially lifted its nearly 5-year ban on U.S. poultry imports effective immediately.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of optional-origin wheat for Jan 5-15 shipment. The lowest offers were Ukrainian and Russian wheat, both at $232.47/tonne c&f, with French wheat offered at $233.80/tonne c&f. The lowest offers on an fob basis were Ukraine at $215.86/tonne, French at $216.36/tonne and Russian at $218.75/tonne. For reference, US HRW at the Gulf is currently quoted around $227/tonne fob for Jan shipment, with SRW around $229.
Weather Brazilian growing regions still look to see rains of 1-2†fall in areas from Parana north in the next 5 days. Totals south of Parana look to be under .25â€. The 6-10 day sees rains of 1-2†to fall across areas north of Parana, with totals of .50-1†south of Parana and limited rains for Parana. Argentine growing regions look to see rains of .50-1â€+ fall across most of Buenos Aries and southern Entre Rios by later in the weekend, with things mainly dry elsewhere. The 6-10 day indicates rains of .50-1â€, with areas of 1â€+ to fall in most of the Argentine growing regions. Temps will be running near average in most of the South American growing regions in the next 10 days. Some light rains will work through MN, WI, IA and possibly IL Sunday, bringing a general .30†or less to those areas. The next precip event looks to be the 2nd half of next week with generally less than .30†to MN, WI and IA, with rains of .20-.80†to fall in MO, IL, MI, IN and OH.