-Soybean sales strong/above expectations as Chinese purchases get reflected
-Corn sales within expectations, but remain weak
-Wheat sales within expectations, but uninspiring
-New crop SBM sales uneventful/SBO sales minimal
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 9/26/19, were strong at 2.076 MMT (76.3 million bushels) as recent Chinese purchases make their way into the Export Sales data. While this week’s sales were well above reported market expectations of 900k-1.4 MMT, the vast majority of new sales were to China, which largely had been known/previously reported and don’t really appear to indicate anything outside of previous market talk. This week’s activity reflected net sales for the week of 1.558 MMT to China, bringing their total commitments so far to 3.6 MMT (1.3 MMT at this time last year), in line with overall market talk of purchases so far. The USDA’s official daily sales announcements during the sales week period were 838k tonnes, potentially leaving some to see this week’s sales data as “larger than expected,” but under the way sales have to be reported to the USDA and with Chinese buying methods of multiple purchases from different companies that don’t necessarily meet the daily reporting requirement, total sales are usually larger than what is reflected in daily announcements in times when China is “in the market” buying soybeans. Additional daily announcements since the reporting period for this week’s data, to be included in next week’s report, were 875k tonnes in sales to China (including this morning’s 252k). This week’s total sales were the largest single-week sales since mid-February, but that should really be of no surprise. Total commitments of 525 million bushels are still down 29% from last year’s 739 million at this time, leaving sales needing to average roughly 26.4 million bushels/week through the end of next August vs last year’s average weekly sales from this point forward of 22.0 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection.
U.S. corn sales remain tepid with 563k tonnes (22.1 million bushels) sold last week, in line with muted market expectations of 400-800k and little-changed from last week’s 19.4 million. Besides the solid week of pre-USDA report buying three weeks ago, three of the last four week’s sales have been just 19-22 million/week. Over the first four weeks of 2019/20, corn sales have totaled 119 million bushels vs 209 million during the same 4-week period last year. Total commitments of 382 million bushels are down 51% from last year’s 776 million at this time, leaving sales needing to average and extremely strong 33.7 million bushels/week over the next 11 months vs last year’s 24.8 million/week average in order to reach the USDA’s current 2.050 billion bushel export projection.
U.S. wheat sales last week were just 329k tonnes (12.1 million bushels) and, while they were within market expectations of 200-500k tonnes, that’s not saying much as wheat sales have slowed considerably in recent weeks. Four of the last five week’s sales fell in a range of just 10-12 million bushels, for total sales of 67 million bushels during the period vs last year’s 85 million during the same five weeks. Total commitments of 474 million bushels are now up 14% from last year’s 415 million after being up 25% on the year in early August. After the strong start to wheat sales, in which sales at the beginning of of the 2019/20 marketing year sat at 226 million bushels vs 166 million to start 2018/19, weekly sales for the first 17 weeks of 2019/20 have averaged 15.3 million bushels/week, exactly the same last year’s average sales during the same period – highlighting the far from impressive/encouraging sales which have been taking place after the strong start. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 13.4 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection vs last year’s 15.3 million/week average from this point forward.
New crop soybean meal sales last week of 137k tonnes were within market expectations of 50-250k tonnes, while new crop soybean oil sales for the week were zero vs expectations of 5-25k tonnes. This week’s data reflects the last full week of the 2018/19 marketing year, as old crop sales were minimal as would be expected. Heading into 2019/20, soybean meal total commitments of 2.296 MMT are starting moderately behind last year’s 2.935 MMT, while early new crop soybean oil commitments of 69k tonnes are in line with last year’s 73k.
