-NOPA December soybean crush slightly lower than expected, but record high
-December soybean oil stocks slightly lower than expected, but up from November
NOPA reported its members crushed 183.2 million bushels of soybeans in December, slightly below average market expectations of 185.2 million, but up from 181.0 million in November and, once again, easily setting a new record in exceeding last year’s 174.8 million. Based on the recent relationship between NOPA and nationwide crush, December U.S.-total crush would be implied around 193.5 million bushels vs 184.7 million bushels last year. Accordingly, Sept-Dec marketing year to date crush is estimated at roughly 752 million bushels vs last year’s 709 million, with the 43 million bushel year-over-year gain already exceeding the USDA’s estimated 35 million bushel annual increase to 2.200 billion bushels. Accordingly, demand rationing will become an increasing focus as the year progresses as the U.S. soybean balance sheet can ill-afford further demand increases with ending stocks already projected at historically minimal levels.
NOPA reported its members produced 2.122 billion pounds of soybean oil in December vs 2.105 billion in November and 2.012 billion pounds last year, with the average soybean oil yield in December slipping to 11.59 pounds/bushel from 11.63 in November and 11.67 in October, but continues to run solidly above last year’s December NOPA yield of 11.50 pounds/bushel. Through teh first three months of 20/21, NOPA member soybean oil yields are averagnig 11.63 pounds/bushel vs 11.54 during the same period last year.
NOPA reported end December soybean oil stocks held by its members rose to 1.699 billion pounds from 1.558 billion pounds in November, but were slightly below average market expectations of 1.712 billion pounds and modestly below year ago Dec stocks of 1.757 billion pounds. Overall, though, soybean oil stocks remain comfortable in historical terms as seen in the first chart below, only below last year’s for the 2nd highest of the last eight years. Implied monthly soybean oil “off-take” (Nov stocks + Dec production – Dec stocks) among NOPA members of 1.981 billion pounds compared to 2.035 billion in November and 1.703 billion pounds last year.
NOPA reported its members produced 4.304 million tons vs 4.282 million tons in November and 4.112 million tons last year December, while exporting 1.037 million tons of soybean meal in December vs 1.082 million tons in November and 903k tons last year.
