NOPA’s September soybean crush was record high and in line with expectations, while soybean oil stocks continued their seasonal decline in line with expectations, as well.
NOPA reported its members crushed 161.5 million bushels of soybeans in September, the first month of 2020/21, vs 165.1 million in August and was generally in line with market expectations of 160.8 million, while reflecting a new record for the month in slightly surpassing 2018’s 160.8 million. Last year saw 2019/20 crush get off to a bit of a slow start at 152.6 million bushels in September before ramping up strongly to set new monthly records nine of the following eleven months. Based on the recent relationship between NOPA and U.S.-total crush, nationwide September crush would be implied around 171.3 million bushels vs 174.7 million in August and 162.3 million bushels last year. Accordingly, in order to reach the USDA’s 2020/21 annual estimate of 2.180 billion bushels, crush over the next 11 months would need to total roughly 2.009 billion bushels, comparable to last year’s 2.003 billion during the period.
NOPA reported soybean oil production in September (the last month of 2019/20) by its members was 1.873 billion pounds vs 1.915 billion in August and 1.809 billion pounds last year. NOPA members’ soybean oil yield held steady in September at 11.60 pounds/bushel, unchanged from August and July, but was well below last year’s 11.86 for the month, which reflected an odd spike from 11.69 in August and the 11.70 average over the prior three months. Over the last six months, U.S. total soybean oil production averaged 5.4% larger than NOPA production, with a similar level for September implying monthly production around 1.975 billion pounds, putting 2019/20 total production at 24.918 billion pounds vs the USDA’s last balance sheet assumption of 24.890 billion pounds. USDA’s official September crush data will be released on Monday, November 2, allowing for finalization of 2019/20 production and stocks numbers.
NOPA reported end September soybean oil stocks held by its members were 1.433 billion pounds, in line with average market expectations of 1.412 billion pounds and continuing the seasonal decline from 1.519 billion pounds in August. As seen in the third chart below, soybean oil stocks typically decline from April through September before starting to rebound again early in the new marketing year upon the ramp up of crush with new crop soybean supplies becoming available. September NOPA oil stocks have been extremely consistent over the last six years, falling in a tight range of 1.302-1.531 billion pounds with this year’s stocks right in the middle. Over the last four months, U.S. total soybean oil stocks have averaged 29.5% above NOPA stocks. A similar difference for September would imply nationwide stocks around 1.856 billion pounds, which would be modestly above the USDA’s current 2019/20 ending stocks estimate of 1.740 billion pounds. However, it is interesting to note, the last two years’ September soybean oil stocks reflected a considerable decline in the difference with NOPA stocks vs prior months as last year saw nationwide end September stocks 23.1% larger than NOPA vs the prior four-month average of 31.7%, with September 2018 stocks 29.9% larger than NOPA vs the 32.5% average the four months prior. Nonetheless, the USDA’s current 2019/20 ending stocks estimate reflects nationwide stocks 21.4% larger than NOPA, which still appears to imply the potential for soybean oil stocks to prove a bit above the USDA’s projection.
NOPA reported its members produced 3.788 million tons of soybean meal in September vs 3.884 million in August and 3.576 million tons last year. NOPA members exported 991k tons of soybean meal in September, up from 755k in August, 845k tons last year and a 42-month high.
