-NOPA Jan soybean crush lower than expected – unexpectedly down from last year
-NOPA Jan soybean oil stocks slightly lower than expected but still highest in 9 years
NOPA reported its members crushed 182.2 million bushels of soybeans in January, well below average market expectations of 186.7 million, as well as the entire range of ideas of 183.7-188.5 million bushels, while declining from 186.4 million bushels crushed in December and falling below last year’s record January NOPA crush of 184.7 million bushels. General expectations were for a new all-time record monthly crush rate to be set by NOPA members in the month, but that wasn’t the case. Based on the recent-month relationship between NOPA and nationwide crush, we would expect U.S. total crush for January to be around 193.7 million bushels vs 198.2 million in December and 196.5 million bushels last year, putting marketing year-to-date (Sep-Jan) crush at an estimated 944 million bushels vs 948 million last year and leaving Feb-Aug crush needing to total 1.271 billion bushels in order to reach the USDA’s 2.215 billion bushel marketing year total estimate vs last year’s 1.193 billion during the same period – a 6.6% year-over-year increase. Given the considerably-reduced crush rates last year during much of the Feb-Aug period, a 6%+ increase from last year certainly is achievable, but the unexpected downturn in January crush does raise a minor warning flag. Interestingly, the 5.88 million bushels/day average daily crush rate by NOPA members in January was the lowest four months and moderately below last year’s 5.96 million/day in January.
NOPA members reported producing 2.151 billion pounds of soybean oil in January, down from 2.192 billion in December given the lower crush, and below last year’s 2.173 billion pounds, but the average soybean oil yield rose to 11.81 pounds/bushel from 11.75 in December and last year’s 11.77 in January, setting a new January yield record. Given the continued historically high yields through the first four months 2021/22, we remain of the opinion the 2021/22 marketing year total average soybean oil yield is likely to prove yet a bit above the USDA’s current 11.83 pound/bushel record yield assumption, as we’re at 11.86 for our balance sheet. The current marketing year average record yield was 11.82 pounds/bushel in 2012/13. Based on the recent-month relationship between NOPA and nationwide data, U.S. total soybean oil production in January would be implied around 2.280 billion pounds vs 2.324 billion in December and 2.309 billion pounds last year.
NOPA reported soybean oil stocks held by its members at the end of January were 2.026 billion pounds, essentially unchanged from 2.031 billion in December and solidly above last year’s 1.799 billion pounds, but modestly below average market expectations of 2.062 billion pounds given the lower-than-expected crush during the month. Despite being a bit lower than expected, January NOPA soybean oil stocks were still the highest for the month in nine years, still coming in a touch above 2020’s 2.013 billion and solidly above all other January NOPA stocks levels since 2014. Over the last five years, nationwide January soybean oil stocks have averaged 28.5% above NOPA-member stocks, implying U.S.-total stocks around 2.603 billion pounds vs 2.466 billion in December and 2.306 billion pounds last year. Implied monthly soybean oil “off-take” among NOPA members in January (Dec stocks + Jan production – Jan stocks) of 2.157 billion pounds compared to 1.992 billion in December and 2.073 billion pounds last year January.
NOPA reported its members produced 4.271 million tons of soybean meal in January vs 4.357 million in December and 4.379 million tons last year January, with the average soybean meal yield achieved by NOPA members in January of 46.88 pounds/bushel comparing to 46.74 in December and 47.43 in January last year. Through the first four months of 2021/22, the soybean meal yield of NOPA members averaged 46.77 pounds/bushels vs 47.12 during the same period last year.