NOPA March soybean crush and soybean oil stocks were both slightly below average market expectations, with crush reflecting the 2nd consecutive month of reduced demand relative to year ago levels. Soybean oil stocks, while slightly less than expected, were little-changed from the previous month and still in line with recent years’ same-month levels.
NOPA reported its members crushed 178.0 million bushels of soybeans in March, slightly less than average market expectations of 179.2 million and 1.9% (3.4 million bushels) less than last year’s March crush of 181.4 million bushels. This was the 2nd consecutive month of reduced crush relative to last year following February’s 155.2 million bushels, which was down 6.7% (11.1 million bushels) from last year, at least partially due to the mid-month arctic blast across the nation’s midsection. Based on the recent-month relationship between NOPA and U.S. total crush, nationwide crush for the month would be implied around 188.7 million bushels vs 164.3 million in February and 192.2 million bushels last year, putting 2020/21 marketing year-to-date (Sept-March) crush at 1.301 billion bushels vs 1.265 billion last year, leaving April-August crush needing total 889 million bushels vs last year’s 899 million(-1.2%) to reach the USDA’s 2.190 billion bushel annual crush estimate. While crush margins remain solid, the recent slowing of soybean oil and soybean meal export demand, along with weakening hog and broiler numbers, supports the prospect of at least modestly lower crush relative to last year in the month’s ahead.
NOPA reported its member produced 2.107 billion pounds of soybean oil in March vs 1.816 billion in February and above last year’s 2.096 billion pounds despite crush being 3.4 million bushels lower than March 2020 as a result of the average soybean oil yield for NOPA members in March rising solidly to 11.84 pounds/bushel from 11.70 in February and being 2.4% better than last year’s March yield of 11.56 pounds/bushel. Impressively, the March soybean oil yield was the highest for the month sinc 2013, the highest for any month since September 2019 and 3rd highest for any month since July 2014.
NOPA reported its members held soybean oil stocks at the end of March of 1.771 billion pounds, slightly below the average trade estimate of 1.822 billion pounds, but up slightly from February stocks of 1.757 billion pounds. While March stocks were below last year’s 1.899 billion pounds they remain within the range of stocks at this time of the year over the last five years of 1.761-1.946 billion pounds, but a bit below average March stocks since 2016 of 1.856 billion pounds. The seasonal tendency is for soybean oil stocks to rise from November through April, but they have held mostly steady in recent months instead, potentially setting up a situation for stocks to move below recent-year levels in the months ahead. However, it should be noted current soybean oil stocks are still well above historically low levels at this time of the year of around 1.400 billion pounds in 2015, 2005 and 2004. Implied monthly soybean oil “off-take” among NOPA members in March (last month’s stocks + this month’s production – this month’s stocks) of 2.093 billion pounds was up from February’s reduced-days off-take of 1.857 billion pounds, but below last year’s 2.119 billion pounds in March. Based on the relationship between NOPA soybean oil stocks and U.S. total stocks in February, nationwide March soybean oil stocks would be implied around 2.324 billion pounds vs 2.306 billion in February and essentially unchanged from last year’s 2.327 billion pounds. So far this year, nationwide soybean oil stocks have averaged 30.4% larger than NOPA-member stocks vs last year’s 23.7% average difference during Oct-Feb.
NOPA reported its members produced 4.233 million tons of soybean meal in March vs 3.696 million tons in February and 4.269 million tons last year, while exporting 937k tons in March vs 838k in February and 974k tons last year.
